⚠️ This AI-generated report synthesizes publicly available information. AI can make mistakes. Please double check information in this report.
Trip.com Group Limited
Consumer Cyclical | Travel Services
⚡ Executive Summary
📊 The Bottom Line
Trip.com Group is a dominant global online travel service provider, leveraging its comprehensive platform and strong market position, especially in Asia, to drive revenue and profit growth. The company benefits from a robust post-pandemic travel recovery and strategic investments in technology and global expansion.
⚖️ Risk vs Reward
At its current valuation, Trip.com Group trades at a lower P/E ratio compared to its industry. Analysts see potential upside, with an average price target significantly above the current price, indicating a favorable risk/reward for long-term investors given its growth prospects and market leadership.
🚀 Why 9961.HK Could Soar
- • Sustained global travel recovery and booming domestic tourism in China will fuel continued strong demand for its services.
- • Strategic investments in AI-powered services and international expansion are enhancing user engagement and diversifying revenue streams.
- • Comprehensive service offerings and a powerful ecosystem create strong customer loyalty and competitive defensibility.
⚠️ What Could Go Wrong
- • Intense competition in the online travel market, particularly from rivals like Meituan and Douyin, could pressure margins and market share.
- • Dependence on external factors such as economic downturns, geopolitical tensions, or new pandemics could severely impact travel demand.
- • Regulatory challenges across multiple operating countries and potential anti-monopoly investigations could increase compliance costs and limit operational flexibility.
🏢 Company Overview
💰 How 9961.HK Makes Money
- • Trip.com Group operates as a comprehensive online travel service provider offering accommodation reservations, transportation ticketing, packaged tours, and in-destination services.
- • The company earns commissions from bookings made on its platform for flights, hotels, car rentals, and vacation packages, acting as an agent for service providers.
- • Revenue also comes from service fees on certain bookings, advertising from travel-related companies, and corporate travel management solutions.
Revenue Breakdown
Accommodation Reservations
40%
Booking hotel stays for individual and group travelers.
Transportation Ticketing
38%
Selling flight, train, bus, and ferry tickets.
Packaged Tours
8%
Bundled travel products including tours and transfers.
Corporate Travel
5%
Management solutions for business travel needs.
Other
9%
Various other travel-related services and products.
🎯 WHY THIS MATTERS
This diversified model captures various aspects of the travel journey, reducing reliance on a single segment. The integration of services fosters a comprehensive "one-stop shop" experience, enhancing customer stickiness and expanding cross-selling opportunities across its brand portfolio.
⭐ Competitive Advantage: What Makes 9961.HK Special
1. Dominant Market Position and Scale
Trip.com Group has established itself as a leading online travel agent, particularly with a strong footprint in the Asia-Pacific market. Its extensive network of suppliers and partners, built over two decades, allows it to offer a vast selection of accommodations, flights, and travel packages. This scale provides significant bargaining power with suppliers, enabling competitive pricing and a broader inventory that smaller competitors struggle to match. The company's global reach, amplified by brands like Skyscanner, further solidifies its leadership.
2. Comprehensive Integrated Service Ecosystem
The company offers an unparalleled one-stop platform where users can book everything from flights and hotels to packaged tours, car rentals, and in-destination activities. This comprehensive offering, enhanced by AI-powered recommendations and 24/7 customer support, creates a high switching cost for users who benefit from a seamless planning and booking experience. The integration across its various brands (Ctrip, Qunar, Trip.com, Skyscanner) deepens customer engagement and loyalty.
3. Advanced Technology and Innovation
Trip.com Group consistently invests in technology, including AI and machine learning, to enhance user experience through personalized recommendations, real-time updates, and an intuitive mobile app interface. Its "Trip Planner" tool, driven by AI, saw a 180% surge in unique visits, demonstrating effective innovation. This technological edge improves efficiency, drives customer satisfaction, and enables the company to adapt quickly to evolving consumer preferences and market demands.
🎯 WHY THIS MATTERS
These advantages collectively create a powerful moat around Trip.com Group's business. Its scale allows for cost efficiencies and superior offerings, while its integrated ecosystem and technological innovation ensure high customer retention and continuous adaptation in the dynamic travel industry.
👔 Who's Running The Show
Jie Sun
CEO & Director
Jie Sun, 56, serves as CEO and Director. Having been with the company since 2005, she transitioned to CEO in 2016. A Certified Public Accountant, she previously worked for KPMG in Silicon Valley and Hong Kong. Her leadership focuses on global expansion, technological innovation (like AI-powered services), and driving the company’s post-pandemic recovery and growth, crucial for navigating competitive markets.
⚔️ What's The Competition
The online travel industry is fiercely competitive, characterized by established global players and regional specialists. Trip.com Group competes on comprehensive service offerings, pricing, technology, and brand strength. Key dynamics involve consolidation, technological innovation (especially AI), and adapting to evolving consumer preferences for personalized and sustainable travel.
📊 Market Context
- Total Addressable Market - The global online travel agencies market was valued at US$612.95 billion in 2024, projected to reach US$1,003.13 billion by 2030, driven by increased internet penetration and smartphone usage.
- Key Trend - AI-driven personalization and mobile-first strategies are transforming how travelers plan and book trips, enhancing convenience and user experience.
Competitor
Description
vs 9961.HK
Booking Holdings Inc.
Global leader in online travel, owning brands like Booking.com, Priceline, and Agoda. Strong in accommodation reservations globally.
Has a broader global footprint, particularly in Western markets, with a strong focus on accommodation. Trip.com has a stronger presence in Asia.
Expedia Group
Another major global OTA with brands including Expedia, Hotels.com, Vrbo, and Travelocity. Strong presence in North America.
More diversified brand portfolio globally with a strong emphasis on North American and European markets, while Trip.com leads in Asia.
MakeMyTrip Limited
Dominant online travel company in India, offering flights, hotels, and holiday packages with strong regional focus.
Strong regional competitor in India where Trip.com also has a presence. Offers more localized services tailored to the Indian market.
Market Share - Global Online Travel Agencies Market
Booking Holdings
35%
Expedia Group
25%
Trip.com Group
10%
Others
30%
📊 Valuation & Analysis
📈 Wall Street Summary
Analyst Rating Distribution - 2 Hold, 21 Buy, 2 Strong Buy
2
21
2
12-Month Price Target Range
Low Target
HK$534
+11%
Average Target
HK$673
+40%
High Target
HK$769
+60%
Closing: HK$481.80 (30 Jan 2026)
🚀 The Bull Case - Upside to HK$769
1. Strong Post-Pandemic Travel Recovery
High Probability
Global travel, particularly in Asia-Pacific and inbound China, has rebounded significantly, with international OTA bookings up over 60% YoY. Outbound hotel and air ticket bookings exceed pre-COVID levels, fueling sustained revenue growth and margin expansion.
2. AI-Powered Innovation and Ecosystem Expansion
Medium Probability
Strategic investments in AI (e.g., Trip Planner with 180% surge in visits) enhance personalization and user engagement. This technological edge, coupled with its comprehensive service ecosystem, strengthens customer loyalty and facilitates cross-selling, driving long-term revenue diversification.
3. Global Market Penetration and Strategic Partnerships
Medium Probability
Continued expansion into international markets and strategic alliances (e.g., Emirates partnership) broaden reach and transaction volumes. This global footprint, including platforms like Skyscanner, captures a larger share of the growing worldwide travel market, boosting overall profitability.
🐻 The Bear Case - Downside to HK$534
1. Intense Competition and Pricing Pressure
High Probability
The online travel market is highly competitive, with established players and new entrants (e.g., Meituan, Douyin) intensifying pricing pressure. This could lead to reduced profit margins and erosion of market share, especially in mature segments.
2. Macroeconomic Headwinds and Geopolitical Risks
Medium Probability
Economic downturns, high inflation, or unexpected geopolitical events (e.g., trade tensions, travel bans) could significantly dampen consumer travel demand. This vulnerability to external shocks could impact revenue and profitability.
3. Regulatory Scrutiny and Compliance Costs
Medium Probability
Operating across multiple jurisdictions subjects Trip.com Group to diverse and evolving regulatory frameworks. Potential anti-monopoly investigations or stricter data privacy laws could result in increased compliance costs, fines, or operational restrictions.
🔮 Final thought: Is this a long term relationship?
Trip.com Group Limited's long-term ownership potential hinges on its ability to sustain market leadership amidst intense competition and adapt to evolving travel preferences. Its robust integrated ecosystem and ongoing AI-driven innovation provide a durable moat. Key risks include macroeconomic sensitivity and regulatory pressures. However, if management continues to execute on global expansion and technological advancements, the company is well-positioned to capitalize on the secular growth of the travel industry over the next decade.
📋 Appendix
Financial Performance
Metric
31 Dec 2024
31 Dec 2023
31 Dec 2022
Income Statement
Revenue
HK$53.29B
HK$44.51B
HK$20.04B
Gross Profit
HK$43.30B
HK$36.39B
HK$15.53B
Operating Income
HK$14.96B
HK$11.93B
HK$0.71B
Net Income
HK$17.07B
HK$9.92B
HK$1.40B
EPS (Diluted)
24.78
14.78
2.14
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents
HK$48.44B
HK$41.59B
HK$17.00B
Total Assets
HK$242.58B
HK$219.14B
HK$191.69B
Total Debt
HK$40.32B
HK$45.57B
HK$46.66B
Shareholders' Equity
HK$142.55B
HK$122.18B
HK$112.28B
Key Ratios
Gross Margin
81.3%
81.8%
77.5%
Operating Margin
28.1%
26.8%
3.5%
Return on Equity (TTM)
11.97
8.12
1.25
Analyst Estimates
Metric
Annual (31 Dec 2025)
Annual (31 Dec 2026)
EPS Estimate
HK$46.38
HK$30.74
EPS Growth
+77.0%
-33.7%
Revenue Estimate
HK$61.9B
HK$70.2B
Revenue Growth
+16.1%
+13.5%
Number of Analysts
11
18
Valuation Ratios
| Metric | Value | Description |
|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio (TTM) | 16.60 | Measures current share price relative to trailing twelve-month earnings per share, indicating how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of past earnings. |
| Forward P/E | 13.97 | Measures current share price relative to future earnings estimates, offering a forward-looking view of valuation. |
| PEG Ratio | 4.38 | Relates the P/E ratio to earnings growth, providing insight into whether a stock's price is reasonable given its expected growth. |
| Price/Sales (TTM) | 5.27 | Compares a company's market capitalization to its revenue, useful for valuing growth companies or those with inconsistent earnings. |
| Price/Book (MRQ) | 1.67 | Compares a company's market value to its book value, indicating how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of assets after liabilities. |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.38 | Measures the total value of a company relative to its EBITDA, often used for comparing companies across different capital structures. |
| Return on Equity (TTM) | 20.19 | Indicates how much profit a company generates for each dollar of shareholders' equity, reflecting efficiency in generating profits from equity. |
| Operating Margin | 30.40 | Represents the percentage of revenue remaining after paying for operating expenses, showing a company's operational efficiency. |
Peer Comparison
| Company | Market Cap (B) | P/E Ratio | P/B Ratio | Revenue Growth (%) | Operating Margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trip.com Group Limited (Target) | 314.91 | 16.60 | 1.67 | 15.5% | 30.4% |
| Booking Holdings Inc. | 130.00 | 27.50 | 17.50 | 12.0% | 27.5% |
| Expedia Group | 17.50 | 22.50 | 5.00 | 7.5% | 12.5% |
| MakeMyTrip Limited | 6.00 | 45.00 | 6.50 | 25.0% | 7.5% |
| Sector Average | — | 31.67 | 9.67 | 14.8% | 15.8% |