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Coursera, Inc.
Consumer Defensive | Education & Training Services
⚡ Executive Summary
📊 THE BOTTOM LINE
Coursera is a leading online education platform connecting learners with university-backed courses and degrees. While demonstrating strong revenue growth and expanding its global footprint, the company continues to navigate towards sustainable profitability in a competitive market. Its strong brand and content partnerships are key assets.
⚖️ RISK VS REWARD
At its current price, Coursera presents a compelling risk-reward profile, with analyst price targets suggesting significant upside potential. However, the path to sustained profitability remains a key consideration, posing a moderate risk. The stock is currently trading below its average analyst target.
🚀 WHY COUR COULD SOAR
- • Increasing global demand for flexible online learning solutions and professional upskilling.
- • Expansion into new high-margin enterprise and degree programs, diversifying revenue streams.
- • Strategic partnerships with top-tier universities attracting a premium learner base.
⚠️ WHAT COULD GO WRONG
- • Intense competition from other online learning platforms and traditional institutions entering the digital space.
- • Slower-than-anticipated user acquisition and retention, impacting revenue growth targets.
- • Inability to achieve consistent profitability amidst ongoing investments in technology and marketing.
🏢 Company Overview
💰 How COUR Makes Money
- • Coursera provides online courses, guided projects, and specializations for individuals seeking to learn new skills or advance their careers.
- • It offers professional certificates for entry-level and non-entry-level roles, along with university and MasterTrack certificates, to a global audience.
- • The company partners with universities and industry leaders to deliver full online degree programs for enterprise clients (businesses, campuses, and governments), and individual learners.
Revenue Breakdown
Consumer Segment
55%
Individual online courses, specializations, and guided projects
Enterprise Segment
30%
Learning solutions for businesses, governments, and universities
Degrees Segment
15%
Full online degree programs in partnership with academic institutions
🎯 WHY THIS MATTERS
Coursera's diversified revenue model, spanning individual learners to large institutions, allows it to capture various segments of the growing online education market. The increasing adoption of online degrees and corporate training programs provides a stable and expanding base for future growth.
⭐ Competitive Advantage: What Makes COUR Special
1. Strong University & Industry Partnerships
Coursera collaborates with over 300 leading universities and companies globally, including top-tier institutions. These partnerships ensure a high-quality, credible, and diverse content library, making it an attractive platform for learners seeking recognized credentials. This network is challenging for new entrants to replicate quickly.
2. Comprehensive Content & Credentialing
The platform offers a wide array of learning formats, from short courses and guided projects to professional certificates and full online degrees. This breadth caters to various learner needs and career stages, fostering customer loyalty and repeat engagement. The structured pathways to recognized credentials add significant value.
3. Global Reach & Scalable Platform
Coursera's platform is designed for global accessibility, serving over 136 million learners in more than 190 countries. Its robust technology infrastructure can scale to accommodate a massive user base and deliver diverse content efficiently, enabling cost-effective expansion into new markets and offering significant network effects.
🎯 WHY THIS MATTERS
These competitive advantages collectively reinforce Coursera's position as a premium online learning provider. The extensive network of reputable partners, diverse content offerings, and scalable technology create a strong moat, driving user acquisition and retention while enabling global expansion and operational efficiency.
👔 Who's Running The Show
Greg Hart
President and CEO
Greg Hart was appointed President and CEO of Coursera in February 2025, bringing over 25 years of leadership in technology-driven businesses. He succeeded Jeff Maggioncalda. His background in scaling technology platforms and driving innovation is expected to be crucial for Coursera's continued growth and profitability journey.
⚔️ What's The Competition
The online education market is highly competitive and fragmented, featuring a mix of massive open online course (MOOC) providers, specialized skill-based platforms, and traditional universities expanding their digital offerings. Key players differentiate through content quality, accreditation, pricing, and target audience. The market is dynamic, with continuous innovation in learning delivery and content.
📊 Market Context
- Total Addressable Market - The global e-learning market size was US$299.67 billion in 2024, projected to reach US$842.64 billion by 2030, driven by digital transformation.
- Key Trend - Artificial intelligence (AI) is a key trend in online education, personalizing learning experiences and content delivery.
Competitor
Description
vs COUR
Udemy, Inc. (UDMY)
Offers a vast library of individual courses, often taught by independent instructors, with a focus on practical skills.
Udemy has a broader, more accessible content library with lower price points, appealing to a wider individual learner base, but lacks Coursera's strong university accreditation for many courses.
Chegg, Inc. (CHGG)
Primarily provides online textbook rentals, homework help, and tutoring services to students.
Chegg focuses more on supplementary academic support rather than comprehensive course delivery or degree programs, making it a different segment of the education technology market.
2U, Inc. (TWOU)
Partners with non-profit colleges and universities to build and operate online degree and certificate programs.
2U has a similar focus on university partnerships for degrees but primarily serves as a back-end platform provider, whereas Coursera offers a direct-to-consumer marketplace for many of its university-backed offerings.
Market Share - Global Online Learning Platforms
Coursera
10%
Udemy
8%
2U
1%
Others
81%
📊 Valuation & Analysis
📈 Wall Street Summary
Analyst Rating Distribution - 1 Sell, 6 Hold, 6 Buy, 2 Strong Buy
1
6
6
2
12-Month Price Target Range
Low Target
US$9
+7%
Average Target
US$12
+47%
High Target
US$15
+78%
Current: US$8.44
🚀 The Bull Case - Upside to US$15
1. Expanding Enterprise Segment
High Probability
Coursera's enterprise segment (Coursera for Business, Campus, and Government) is a high-growth area. Increased adoption by organizations for employee training and skill development could significantly boost recurring revenue and improve margins. This could add US$100M+ in annual revenue by 2027.
2. AI-Driven Personalization & Content Creation
Medium Probability
Leveraging AI for personalized learning paths, content recommendations, and even AI-powered course creation could enhance learner engagement and retention, reducing customer acquisition costs. This innovation could attract a larger user base and improve profitability, potentially increasing revenue by 10-15% annually.
3. Global Market Penetration & Localization
Medium Probability
Further expanding into underserved international markets with localized content and partnerships could unlock substantial new revenue streams. As online education gains traction globally, Coursera is well-positioned to capture significant market share, potentially adding US$75-150M in annual revenue from new regions by 2028.
🐻 The Bear Case - Downside to US$9
1. Intensifying Competition and Pricing Pressure
High Probability
The online education market is becoming increasingly crowded. New entrants and established players could intensify competition, leading to pricing pressure on courses and subscriptions, potentially eroding Coursera's gross margins by 2-3 percentage points over the next two years and slowing revenue growth.
2. Slower-Than-Expected Profitability
Medium Probability
Despite revenue growth, Coursera has historically operated at a loss. Failure to effectively manage operating expenses, particularly in R&D and marketing, could delay or prevent the company from achieving sustained profitability, leading to continued negative net income and pressure on investor sentiment.
3. Content Obsolescence & Partner Dependency
Medium Probability
The rapid pace of technological change means educational content can quickly become outdated. Over-reliance on existing university partners for content updates or a failure to adapt to new in-demand skills could lead to reduced learner interest and revenue, potentially impacting subscriber growth by 5-10% annually.
🔮 Final thought: Is this a long term relationship?
For investors with a long-term horizon, Coursera's durable competitive advantages, built on strong university partnerships and a comprehensive content library, suggest a resilient business model in the expanding online education sector. The transition to sustained profitability remains a critical hurdle, but effective execution on enterprise growth and AI integration could solidify its market position. The ability of management to continuously innovate and adapt to evolving learner needs will be crucial for compounding value over a decade.
📋 Appendix
Financial Performance
Metric
FY 2022
FY 2023
FY 2024
FY2025 (Est)
FY2026 (Est)
Income Statement
Revenue
US$0.52B
US$0.64B
US$0.69B
US$0.74B
US$0.82B
Gross Profit
US$0.33B
US$0.33B
US$0.37B
US$0.40B
US$0.44B
Operating Income
US$-0.17B
US$-0.15B
US$-0.10B
US$-0.07B
US$-0.05B
Net Income
US$-0.18B
US$-0.12B
US$-0.08B
US$-0.05B
US$-0.03B
EPS (Diluted)
-1.21
-0.77
-0.51
-0.29
-0.20
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents
US$0.32B
US$0.66B
US$0.73B
US$0.80B
US$0.90B
Total Assets
US$0.95B
US$0.92B
US$0.93B
US$1.00B
US$1.05B
Total Debt
US$0.01B
US$0.01B
US$0.00B
US$0.00B
US$0.00B
Shareholders' Equity
US$0.69B
US$0.62B
US$0.60B
US$0.64B
US$0.60B
Key Ratios
Gross Margin
63.3%
51.9%
53.5%
54.4%
55.0%
Operating Margin
-31.9%
-23.8%
-15.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
Return on Equity
-25.25
-18.92
-13.31
-7.44
-5.00
Valuation Ratios
| Metric | Value | Description |
|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio (TTM) | N/A | The trailing twelve-month Price-to-Earnings ratio measures the current share price relative to the company's earnings per share over the past year, indicating how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of earnings. |
| Forward P/E | 24.82 | The forward Price-to-Earnings ratio uses estimated future earnings to indicate how much investors are willing to pay for future earnings, often used for growth companies or those with current losses. |
| PEG Ratio | N/A | The Price/Earnings to Growth (PEG) ratio compares the P/E ratio to the earnings per share growth rate, providing a more comprehensive valuation picture for growth stocks. |
| Price/Sales (TTM) | 1.90 | The trailing twelve-month Price-to-Sales ratio compares the company's market capitalization to its total revenue over the past year, often used for companies with inconsistent or negative earnings. |
| Price/Book (MRQ) | 2.13 | The Price-to-Book ratio for the most recent quarter compares the market value of a company's stock to the book value of its equity, indicating how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of net assets. |
| EV/EBITDA | -9.95 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA measures a company's total value (market cap + debt - cash) relative to its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, often used to compare companies with different capital structures. |
| Return on Equity (TTM) | -0.07 | Return on Equity (TTM) measures the profitability of a company in relation to the equity invested by shareholders, indicating how efficiently a company uses shareholder investments to generate profits. |
| Operating Margin | -0.08 | Operating Margin indicates how much profit a company makes from its operations before interest and taxes, expressed as a percentage of revenue, reflecting operational efficiency. |
Peer Comparison
| Company | Market Cap (B) | P/E Ratio | P/B Ratio | Revenue Growth (%) | Operating Margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coursera, Inc. (Target) | 1.40 | 24.82 | 2.13 | 10.3% | -8.0% |
| Udemy, Inc. (UDMY) | 1.50 | N/A | 3.50 | 15.0% | -5.0% |
| Chegg, Inc. (CHGG) | 0.80 | N/A | 1.80 | 2.0% | -3.0% |
| 2U, Inc. (TWOU) | 0.00 | N/A | 0.20 | -10.0% | -20.0% |
| Sector Average | — | N/A | 1.83 | 2.3% | -9.3% |