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Consumer Cyclical | Restaurants
📊 THE BOTTOM LINE
Domino's Pizza, Inc. is a global leader in the pizza delivery market, leveraging a robust franchise model and integrated supply chain. The company demonstrates consistent profitability and strong brand recognition, positioning it as a resilient business despite operating in a mature industry. Its digital prowess enhances customer engagement and operational efficiency.
⚖️ RISK VS REWARD
With a current price of US$416.55, Domino's trades below the average analyst target of US$496.65 but above the low target of US$340. The forward P/E of 23.61 suggests it is fairly valued considering its growth prospects and market leadership. The risk/reward profile appears balanced for long-term investors.
🚀 WHY DPZ COULD SOAR
⚠️ WHAT COULD GO WRONG
Company-owned store sales
%
Sales generated directly from Domino's corporate-owned restaurant locations.
Franchise royalties and fees
%
Revenue derived from franchise agreements, including ongoing royalty payments and fees.
Supply chain sales
%
Sales of food, equipment, and other supplies to franchised and corporate stores.
🎯 WHY THIS MATTERS
Domino's diversified revenue streams, combining franchising, company-owned operations, and an integrated supply chain, provide a resilient business model. This structure allows for efficient growth, consistent quality control, and reduced direct operational risk while maintaining strong brand oversight and profitability.
Domino's boasts a highly efficient and vertically integrated supply chain, manufacturing its own dough and distributing a vast array of ingredients and equipment to its stores. This strategic control ensures consistent product quality, optimizes cost structures through economies of scale, and generates a predictable, high-margin revenue stream from franchisees, distinguishing it from many competitors. This operational control is difficult for rivals to replicate quickly.
Operating primarily through a franchise model across over 90 international markets and more than 21,500 stores, Domino's benefits from rapid, capital-efficient global expansion. This extensive footprint and strong brand recognition enable deep market penetration and customer loyalty. The franchisee network acts as a powerful growth engine, while the established brand commands a premium and sustains customer trust.
Domino's pioneered digital ordering and has consistently innovated its technology platforms, offering a seamless customer experience across multiple channels. This strong digital ecosystem, combined with a highly developed and efficient delivery infrastructure, provides a significant competitive advantage in convenience, speed, and data analytics, enhancing customer retention and operational efficiency.
🎯 WHY THIS MATTERS
These integrated advantages — from supply chain to global franchising and digital leadership — create a powerful self-reinforcing loop. This ecosystem drives operational efficiency, strengthens brand loyalty, and enhances customer experience, collectively forming a durable competitive moat against rivals and supporting long-term profitability.
Russell Weiner
Chief Executive Officer
Russell Weiner has served as Domino's CEO since May 2022, previously holding roles as COO and President of Domino's U.S.. With a strong background in marketing and operations from PepsiCo, his leadership focuses on driving digital innovation, optimizing the company's operational footprint, and fostering franchisee profitability to sustain global growth.
The global pizza market is highly competitive and dynamic, encompassing established international chains, regional players, and a growing number of third-party food delivery services. Competition revolves around factors such as price, product innovation, delivery speed, convenience, and brand loyalty. Digital platforms and efficient last-mile delivery capabilities are increasingly critical differentiators in this fragmented landscape.
📊 Market Context
Competitor
Description
vs DPZ
Pizza Hut (Yum! Brands)
A global fast-food chain, part of Yum! Brands, with a broad menu, diverse store formats, and a significant international presence.
Competes directly on product offerings, pricing, and delivery capabilities, but generally operates with a less vertically integrated supply chain than Domino's.
Papa John's International
Focuses on premium ingredients and quality pizza, operating through a franchise model with a growing international footprint.
Similar franchise-centric business model and product focus to Domino's, but with a smaller global store count and generally lower market share.
Little Caesars
Known for its 'Hot-N-Ready' value proposition, offering quick, affordable carryout pizzas with less emphasis on extensive delivery services.
Primarily competes on price and speed in the carryout segment, targeting value-conscious consumers, which differs from Domino's delivery-centric model.
Domino's Pizza
22%
Pizza Hut
18%
Papa John's
7%
Little Caesars
5%
Others
48%
1
1
12
19
1
Low Target
US$340
-18%
Average Target
US$497
+19%
High Target
US$597
+43%
Current: US$416.55
High Probability
Domino's continues to leverage its robust digital ordering platforms and loyalty initiatives to drive repeat business and attract new customers. Further innovation in AI-driven personalization and enhanced delivery speed could boost comparable store sales by 2-3% annually, leading to a 5-10% increase in EPS over the next 2-3 years.
Medium Probability
Significant growth opportunities persist in underpenetrated international markets, particularly across Asia and Africa. Adapting its successful franchise model to these diverse regions could unlock US$500 million to US$1 billion in new annual revenue by 2028, substantially accelerating overall growth rates.
Medium Probability
Ongoing efforts to optimize its vertically integrated supply chain and effectively manage rising ingredient costs are expected to enhance profitability. Leveraging economies of scale and technology for efficiency gains could result in a 100-200 basis point improvement in gross margins, potentially increasing net income by 5-8%.
High Probability
The rise of aggressive third-party delivery aggregators and expanded offerings from traditional pizza rivals could lead to market share losses and increased marketing spend for Domino's. This could result in a 1-2% decline in comparable store sales growth and a 50-100 basis point compression of operating margins, directly impacting profitability.
High Probability
Persistent inflationary pressures on key food ingredients and escalating labor wages, particularly for delivery drivers, pose a significant threat to Domino's profitability. A sustained 5-10% increase in cost of goods sold or labor expenses, if not fully offset by price adjustments, could reduce net income by 10-15%.
Medium Probability
The U.S. pizza market is mature, and a slowdown in domestic comparable store sales growth, coupled with saturation in new store openings, could limit overall revenue expansion. This might offset gains from international markets and dampen investor sentiment, potentially leading to a contraction in valuation multiples.
Domino's robust franchise model, highly integrated supply chain, and continuous digital innovation establish a durable competitive moat in the global pizza market. For a decade-long investor, sustained international expansion and advancements in delivery technology are crucial. While risks like intense competition and cost pressures exist, management's consistent execution will be vital to maintaining market leadership and generating long-term shareholder value through compounding quality and efficiency.
Metric
FY 2022
FY 2023
FY 2024
FY2025 (Est)
FY2026 (Est)
Income Statement
Revenue
US$4.54B
US$4.48B
US$4.71B
US$4.85B
US$5.00B
Gross Profit
US$1.65B
US$1.73B
US$1.85B
US$1.93B
US$1.43B
Operating Income
US$0.75B
US$0.82B
US$0.88B
US$0.88B
US$0.90B
Net Income
US$0.45B
US$0.52B
US$0.58B
US$0.59B
US$0.61B
EPS (Diluted)
12.53
14.66
16.69
17.11
17.64
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents
US$0.06B
US$0.11B
US$0.19B
US$0.14B
US$0.14B
Total Assets
US$1.60B
US$1.67B
US$1.74B
US$1.66B
US$1.66B
Total Debt
US$5.25B
US$5.21B
US$5.20B
US$5.05B
US$5.05B
Shareholders' Equity
US$-4.19B
US$-4.07B
US$-3.96B
US$-3.96B
US$-3.96B
Key Ratios
Gross Margin
36.3%
38.6%
39.3%
28.6%
28.6%
Operating Margin
16.5%
18.3%
18.7%
18.1%
18.1%
Return on Assets (TTM)
-10.80
-12.75
-14.74
33.95
33.95
| Metric | Value | Description |
|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio (TTM) | 24.33 | Measures the current share price relative to the trailing twelve months' earnings per share, indicating how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of earnings. |
| Forward P/E | 23.61 | Measures the current share price relative to expected future earnings per share, offering insight into future valuation based on analyst forecasts. |
| PEG Ratio | N/A | Compares the P/E ratio to the company's earnings growth rate, used to determine if a stock is undervalued or overvalued relative to its expected growth. |
| Price/Sales (TTM) | 2.92 | Compares the company's market capitalization to its revenue over the past twelve months, often used for companies with inconsistent or negative earnings. |
| Price/Book (MRQ) | -3.69 | Indicates how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of book value; a negative value suggests negative shareholder equity, which can occur with high debt levels. |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.38 | Compares the enterprise value to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, providing a comprehensive valuation multiple that accounts for debt. |
| Return on Equity (TTM) | -0.15 | Measures a company's profitability in relation to shareholders' equity; a negative value indicates a loss or negative equity, which warrants further investigation. |
| Operating Margin | 0.18 | Represents the percentage of revenue left after paying for operating expenses, indicating the company's efficiency in generating profits from its core operations. |
| Company | Market Cap (B) | P/E Ratio | P/B Ratio | Revenue Growth (%) | Operating Margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domino's Pizza, Inc. (Target) | 14.14 | 24.33 | -3.69 | 3.1% | 18.1% |
| Yum! Brands, Inc. | 41.37 | 28.24 | 5.28 | 11.6% | 24.8% |
| Papa John's International | 1.41 | 24.92 | 0.66 | -0.6% | 5.5% |
| McDonald's Corporation | 222.09 | 26.50 | 8.48 | 1.3% | 46.9% |
| Sector Average | — | 26.55 | 4.80 | 4.1% | 25.7% |