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Domino's Pizza, Inc.

DPZ:NASDAQ

Consumer Cyclical | Restaurants

Current Price
US$416.55
-0.02%
1 day
Market Cap
US$14.1B
Analyst Consensus
Buy
20 Buy, 12 Hold, 2 Sell
Avg Price Target
US$496.65
Range: US$340 - US$597
Food & Beverage

Executive Summary

📊 THE BOTTOM LINE

Domino's Pizza, Inc. is a global leader in the pizza delivery market, leveraging a robust franchise model and integrated supply chain. The company demonstrates consistent profitability and strong brand recognition, positioning it as a resilient business despite operating in a mature industry. Its digital prowess enhances customer engagement and operational efficiency.

⚖️ RISK VS REWARD

With a current price of US$416.55, Domino's trades below the average analyst target of US$496.65 but above the low target of US$340. The forward P/E of 23.61 suggests it is fairly valued considering its growth prospects and market leadership. The risk/reward profile appears balanced for long-term investors.

🚀 WHY DPZ COULD SOAR

  • Continued international expansion into emerging markets could significantly broaden its customer base and drive substantial revenue growth over the next decade.
  • Further digital innovation, including AI-driven personalization and enhanced delivery logistics, may solidify market leadership and increase customer loyalty and order frequency.
  • Successful introduction of new menu items or strategic partnerships could attract new demographics and boost same-store sales, improving overall financial performance.

⚠️ WHAT COULD GO WRONG

  • Intensifying competition from rival pizza chains and aggressive third-party food delivery platforms could erode market share and lead to increased marketing expenses, pressuring margins.
  • Sustained increases in key ingredient costs, such as cheese and labor expenses for delivery personnel, could significantly impact Domino's profitability given its high-volume, thin-margin business.
  • A slowdown in domestic comparable store sales growth due to market saturation or shifting consumer preferences could temper overall revenue expansion, offsetting international gains.

🏢 Company Overview

💰 How DPZ Makes Money

  • Domino's Pizza, Inc. operates as a global pizza company, offering a diverse menu including pizzas, wings, sandwiches, and desserts.
  • The company primarily generates revenue through its extensive franchise system, collecting royalty fees and marketing contributions from franchisees worldwide.
  • It also owns and operates approximately 600 stores in the United States, which serve as test beds for new products and operational innovations.
  • A significant portion of its revenue comes from its supply chain segment, which manufactures dough and distributes ingredients and equipment to its franchised and company-owned stores.

Revenue Breakdown

Company-owned store sales

%

Sales generated directly from Domino's corporate-owned restaurant locations.

Franchise royalties and fees

%

Revenue derived from franchise agreements, including ongoing royalty payments and fees.

Supply chain sales

%

Sales of food, equipment, and other supplies to franchised and corporate stores.

🎯 WHY THIS MATTERS

Domino's diversified revenue streams, combining franchising, company-owned operations, and an integrated supply chain, provide a resilient business model. This structure allows for efficient growth, consistent quality control, and reduced direct operational risk while maintaining strong brand oversight and profitability.

Competitive Advantage: What Makes DPZ Special

1. Integrated Supply Chain

High10+ Years

Domino's boasts a highly efficient and vertically integrated supply chain, manufacturing its own dough and distributing a vast array of ingredients and equipment to its stores. This strategic control ensures consistent product quality, optimizes cost structures through economies of scale, and generates a predictable, high-margin revenue stream from franchisees, distinguishing it from many competitors. This operational control is difficult for rivals to replicate quickly.

2. Global Franchise System & Brand Power

HighStructural (Permanent)

Operating primarily through a franchise model across over 90 international markets and more than 21,500 stores, Domino's benefits from rapid, capital-efficient global expansion. This extensive footprint and strong brand recognition enable deep market penetration and customer loyalty. The franchisee network acts as a powerful growth engine, while the established brand commands a premium and sustains customer trust.

3. Digital Ordering & Delivery Prowess

Medium5-10 Years

Domino's pioneered digital ordering and has consistently innovated its technology platforms, offering a seamless customer experience across multiple channels. This strong digital ecosystem, combined with a highly developed and efficient delivery infrastructure, provides a significant competitive advantage in convenience, speed, and data analytics, enhancing customer retention and operational efficiency.

🎯 WHY THIS MATTERS

These integrated advantages — from supply chain to global franchising and digital leadership — create a powerful self-reinforcing loop. This ecosystem drives operational efficiency, strengthens brand loyalty, and enhances customer experience, collectively forming a durable competitive moat against rivals and supporting long-term profitability.

👔 Who's Running The Show

Russell Weiner

Chief Executive Officer

Russell Weiner has served as Domino's CEO since May 2022, previously holding roles as COO and President of Domino's U.S.. With a strong background in marketing and operations from PepsiCo, his leadership focuses on driving digital innovation, optimizing the company's operational footprint, and fostering franchisee profitability to sustain global growth.

⚔️ What's The Competition

The global pizza market is highly competitive and dynamic, encompassing established international chains, regional players, and a growing number of third-party food delivery services. Competition revolves around factors such as price, product innovation, delivery speed, convenience, and brand loyalty. Digital platforms and efficient last-mile delivery capabilities are increasingly critical differentiators in this fragmented landscape.

📊 Market Context

  • Total Addressable Market - The global pizza market was valued at US$177 billion in 2023, projected to grow to US$233 billion by 2028, driven by convenience and digital ordering.
  • Key Trend - A significant shift towards digital ordering and third-party delivery services is reshaping the industry, pressuring traditional chains to innovate their online presence and logistics.

Competitor

Description

vs DPZ

Pizza Hut (Yum! Brands)

A global fast-food chain, part of Yum! Brands, with a broad menu, diverse store formats, and a significant international presence.

Competes directly on product offerings, pricing, and delivery capabilities, but generally operates with a less vertically integrated supply chain than Domino's.

Papa John's International

Focuses on premium ingredients and quality pizza, operating through a franchise model with a growing international footprint.

Similar franchise-centric business model and product focus to Domino's, but with a smaller global store count and generally lower market share.

Little Caesars

Known for its 'Hot-N-Ready' value proposition, offering quick, affordable carryout pizzas with less emphasis on extensive delivery services.

Primarily competes on price and speed in the carryout segment, targeting value-conscious consumers, which differs from Domino's delivery-centric model.

Market Share - Global Pizza Market

Domino's Pizza

22%

Pizza Hut

18%

Papa John's

7%

Little Caesars

5%

Others

48%

📊 Valuation & Analysis

📈 Wall Street Summary

Analyst Rating Distribution - 1 Strong Sell, 1 Sell, 12 Hold, 19 Buy, 1 Strong Buy

1

1

12

19

1

12-Month Price Target Range

Low Target

US$340

-18%

Average Target

US$497

+19%

High Target

US$597

+43%

Current: US$416.55

🚀 The Bull Case - Upside to US$597

1. Digital Leadership & Loyalty Programs

High Probability

Domino's continues to leverage its robust digital ordering platforms and loyalty initiatives to drive repeat business and attract new customers. Further innovation in AI-driven personalization and enhanced delivery speed could boost comparable store sales by 2-3% annually, leading to a 5-10% increase in EPS over the next 2-3 years.

2. Untapped International Market Growth

Medium Probability

Significant growth opportunities persist in underpenetrated international markets, particularly across Asia and Africa. Adapting its successful franchise model to these diverse regions could unlock US$500 million to US$1 billion in new annual revenue by 2028, substantially accelerating overall growth rates.

3. Supply Chain Optimization & Cost Control

Medium Probability

Ongoing efforts to optimize its vertically integrated supply chain and effectively manage rising ingredient costs are expected to enhance profitability. Leveraging economies of scale and technology for efficiency gains could result in a 100-200 basis point improvement in gross margins, potentially increasing net income by 5-8%.

🐻 The Bear Case - Downside to US$340

1. Intensifying Competition & Market Share Erosion

High Probability

The rise of aggressive third-party delivery aggregators and expanded offerings from traditional pizza rivals could lead to market share losses and increased marketing spend for Domino's. This could result in a 1-2% decline in comparable store sales growth and a 50-100 basis point compression of operating margins, directly impacting profitability.

2. Rising Labor and Ingredient Costs

High Probability

Persistent inflationary pressures on key food ingredients and escalating labor wages, particularly for delivery drivers, pose a significant threat to Domino's profitability. A sustained 5-10% increase in cost of goods sold or labor expenses, if not fully offset by price adjustments, could reduce net income by 10-15%.

3. Slowing Domestic Market Growth & Saturation

Medium Probability

The U.S. pizza market is mature, and a slowdown in domestic comparable store sales growth, coupled with saturation in new store openings, could limit overall revenue expansion. This might offset gains from international markets and dampen investor sentiment, potentially leading to a contraction in valuation multiples.

🔮 Final thought: Is this a long term relationship?

Domino's robust franchise model, highly integrated supply chain, and continuous digital innovation establish a durable competitive moat in the global pizza market. For a decade-long investor, sustained international expansion and advancements in delivery technology are crucial. While risks like intense competition and cost pressures exist, management's consistent execution will be vital to maintaining market leadership and generating long-term shareholder value through compounding quality and efficiency.

📋 Appendix

Financial Performance

Metric

FY 2022

FY 2023

FY 2024

FY2025 (Est)

FY2026 (Est)

Income Statement

Revenue

US$4.54B

US$4.48B

US$4.71B

US$4.85B

US$5.00B

Gross Profit

US$1.65B

US$1.73B

US$1.85B

US$1.93B

US$1.43B

Operating Income

US$0.75B

US$0.82B

US$0.88B

US$0.88B

US$0.90B

Net Income

US$0.45B

US$0.52B

US$0.58B

US$0.59B

US$0.61B

EPS (Diluted)

12.53

14.66

16.69

17.11

17.64

Balance Sheet

Cash & Equivalents

US$0.06B

US$0.11B

US$0.19B

US$0.14B

US$0.14B

Total Assets

US$1.60B

US$1.67B

US$1.74B

US$1.66B

US$1.66B

Total Debt

US$5.25B

US$5.21B

US$5.20B

US$5.05B

US$5.05B

Shareholders' Equity

US$-4.19B

US$-4.07B

US$-3.96B

US$-3.96B

US$-3.96B

Key Ratios

Gross Margin

36.3%

38.6%

39.3%

28.6%

28.6%

Operating Margin

16.5%

18.3%

18.7%

18.1%

18.1%

Return on Assets (TTM)

-10.80

-12.75

-14.74

33.95

33.95

Valuation Ratios

MetricValueDescription
P/E Ratio (TTM)24.33Measures the current share price relative to the trailing twelve months' earnings per share, indicating how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of earnings.
Forward P/E23.61Measures the current share price relative to expected future earnings per share, offering insight into future valuation based on analyst forecasts.
PEG RatioN/ACompares the P/E ratio to the company's earnings growth rate, used to determine if a stock is undervalued or overvalued relative to its expected growth.
Price/Sales (TTM)2.92Compares the company's market capitalization to its revenue over the past twelve months, often used for companies with inconsistent or negative earnings.
Price/Book (MRQ)-3.69Indicates how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of book value; a negative value suggests negative shareholder equity, which can occur with high debt levels.
EV/EBITDA20.38Compares the enterprise value to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, providing a comprehensive valuation multiple that accounts for debt.
Return on Equity (TTM)-0.15Measures a company's profitability in relation to shareholders' equity; a negative value indicates a loss or negative equity, which warrants further investigation.
Operating Margin0.18Represents the percentage of revenue left after paying for operating expenses, indicating the company's efficiency in generating profits from its core operations.

Peer Comparison

CompanyMarket Cap (B)P/E RatioP/B RatioRevenue Growth (%)Operating Margin (%)
Domino's Pizza, Inc. (Target)14.1424.33-3.693.1%18.1%
Yum! Brands, Inc.41.3728.245.2811.6%24.8%
Papa John's International1.4124.920.66-0.6%5.5%
McDonald's Corporation222.0926.508.481.3%46.9%
Sector Average26.554.804.1%25.7%
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