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iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market ETF

ITOT:NYSE

equity ETF | passive | BlackRock | Tracks S&P Dow Jones Indices

Market Price

US$151.61 (26 Jan 2026)

+12.84% (YoY)

NAV

US$150.96

+0.43% Premium

Yield

1.11%

-6.84% (YoY)

Expense Ratio

3.00%

-91% vs Avg: 35.00%

Box Set (ETF)

⚡ Executive Summary

📊 The Bottom Line

This ETF tracks the S&P Total Market Index, offering broad exposure to U.S. equities of all market capitalizations. It is a highly efficient and low-cost option for accessing the entire U.S. stock market. The bull case projects NAV reaching US$182.00 (+20%) while the bear case suggests US$128.00 (-15%) over 12-18 months. Its minimal expense ratio and robust liquidity make it suitable for core portfolio allocation.

⚖️ Risk vs Reward

The underlying holdings of the U.S. total stock market currently trade at an aggregate P/E of 28.32x, reflecting a generally fair to slightly elevated valuation compared to historical averages. While the market has seen strong performance in recent years, potential risks include higher interest rates impacting growth stocks and broader economic slowdowns. The ETF's broad diversification mitigates single-stock risk, but its market-cap weighting means significant exposure to mega-cap technology firms. This positioning offers potential upside from continued market strength but also exposes investors to concentrated downside if those large growth names face headwinds. Compared to more concentrated equity strategies, ITOT offers a balanced risk-reward profile for broad market participation.

🚀 Why ITOT Could Soar

• Continued U.S. economic expansion and robust corporate earnings growth could drive broad market appreciation, benefiting ITOT's diverse holdings across all market caps.
• Sustained investor preference for passive, low-cost broad-market exposure could lead to increased inflows into ITOT, enhancing liquidity and trading efficiency.
• Mega-cap technology companies, which constitute a significant portion of the index, continue to innovate and expand, potentially pushing market valuations higher.

⚠️ What Could Go Wrong

• A significant economic downturn or recession in the U.S. could lead to widespread corporate earnings declines, negatively impacting all market segments.
• Elevated valuations in specific sectors, particularly technology, could face a correction if growth expectations are not met or if interest rates continue to rise.
• Geopolitical tensions or unexpected policy changes could introduce market volatility, affecting investor confidence and leading to broad market sell-offs.

🏢 Fund Overview

What Are You Actually Buying

The U.S. total stock market encompasses virtually all publicly traded U.S. companies, from the largest mega-caps to the smallest micro-caps, representing a comprehensive measure of the entire domestic equity landscape.
This market segment offers exposure to a vast array of industries and economic sectors, providing inherent diversification across different business cycles and growth profiles.
Investors typically utilize total U.S. stock market exposure for long-term growth, capital appreciation, and broad diversification within a portfolio, often serving as a core equity holding.

Market Dynamics & Outlook

The U.S. equity market currently exhibits a blend of strong corporate fundamentals and elevated valuations in certain growth-oriented segments, particularly large-cap technology.
Economic indicators suggest a resilient but moderating growth environment, with inflation remaining a key factor influencing Federal Reserve policy decisions.
Technological innovation, particularly in artificial intelligence, continues to drive investor interest and capital allocation into leading companies, while other sectors show more cyclical sensitivity.

🎯 Why This Matters

Understanding the total U.S. stock market is crucial as it represents the aggregate economic activity and growth potential of the nation. For investors, this exposure offers broad diversification but requires an awareness of current valuation levels and the dominant influence of large-cap technology, which can significantly sway overall market performance.

📈 Valuation & Analysis

Historical Performance

YTD

+1.55%

+17.02%

Yearly Growth (3Y)

+22.25%

Yearly Growth (5Y)

+13.07%

Yearly Growth (10Y)

+14.21%

Yearly Growth (Since Inception)

+10.37%

Current Valuation

The iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market ETF (ITOT) holds a portfolio whose underlying companies trade at an aggregate price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 28.32x. This valuation is notably above the historical average for the broad U.S. market, largely driven by the high growth expectations and strong performance of mega-cap technology and growth stocks that constitute a significant portion of the index. The dividend yield for the ETF stands at 1.09%. While current valuations suggest the market is not in 'bargain' territory, the P/E ratio is supported by robust earnings growth from many of its core holdings. Investors should consider that a higher P/E implies a greater reliance on future earnings expansion to justify current prices.

The Bull Case - Upside to

Strong Corporate Earnings Growth

Medium Probability

If underlying companies continue to report earnings beats and guidance upgrades, driven by efficiency gains and demand, ITOT's NAV could increase by 15-20% as valuations expand or hold firm. A 15% increase from current NAV implies an NAV of US$173.61.

Increased Investor Inflows

High Probability

Persistent inflows into passive, broad-market ETFs like ITOT, fueled by a positive market sentiment or shifts from active management, could provide a tailwind for share price and liquidity, potentially adding 5-10% to returns. A 5% increase implies an NAV of US$158.51.

Favorable Macroeconomic Conditions

Medium Probability

A 'soft landing' for the U.S. economy, characterized by moderating inflation and sustained economic growth without recession, could support a continued rally in equity markets, potentially boosting ITOT's NAV by 10-15%. A 10% increase implies an NAV of US$166.06.

The Bear Case - Downside to

Economic Recession and Earnings Decline

Low Probability

A severe economic recession could lead to a significant contraction in corporate earnings, potentially causing a 20-30% drop in ITOT's NAV as market multiples compress. A 20% decline implies an NAV of US$120.77.

Sustained High Interest Rates

Medium Probability

If the Federal Reserve maintains higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, it could lead to valuation compression, particularly for growth-oriented stocks in ITOT's portfolio, resulting in a 10-15% decline in NAV. A 10% decline implies an NAV of US$135.87.

Concentration Risk in Mega-Cap Tech

Medium Probability

Despite broad diversification, ITOT is heavily weighted towards a few mega-cap technology stocks. A significant downturn in these specific holdings due to regulatory pressures or competitive shifts could disproportionately impact the ETF, leading to a 5-10% NAV decline. A 5% decline implies an NAV of US$143.42.

Risk/Reward Assessment

The risk-reward profile for ITOT suggests a balanced, though potentially sensitive, outlook. On the upside, continued strong performance from mega-cap technology and a resilient U.S. economy could drive further gains. The ETF offers efficient access to any broad market rally, capitalizing on strong corporate fundamentals and potentially expanding valuations. However, the current elevated valuation multiples across the market, coupled with the ETF's significant concentration in a few large-cap names, introduce downside risk. Investors face the possibility of valuation compression if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate or if growth expectations for leading companies are not met. The comprehensive diversification across market caps does offer some buffer against single-sector or single-stock shocks, but the overall market environment requires vigilance.

Peer Comparison

• ITOT offers the lowest expense ratio in its category at 0.03%, matching peers like VTI and SCHB, making it highly cost-efficient. • It provides broad market exposure, covering approximately 2,500 U.S. stocks, slightly fewer than VTI but more than many large-cap focused ETFs. • The ETF demonstrates strong liquidity with a high average daily trading volume, facilitating efficient entry and exit for investors. [cite: 11, Yahoo Finance] • While generally comparable in performance to its total market peers, ITOT tracks the S&P Total Market Index, offering a slightly different indexing methodology than VTI's CRSP index or SCHB's Dow Jones index.

Fund	Expense Ratio	AUM (B)	1Y Return	3Y Return	5Y Return	Yield
Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI)	3.00%	US$584.6B	17.14%	22.25%	13.08%	1.11%
Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF (SCHB)	3.00%	US$38.9B	17.04%	22.30%	13.12%	1.23%
iShares Russell 3000 ETF (IWV)	20.00%	US$18.5B	16.92%	22.04%	12.96%	0.95%

🎯 Why This Matters

The valuation and peer analysis highlight ITOT's strength as a low-cost, broadly diversified U.S. equity ETF, suitable as a core holding. Investors considering ITOT should weigh the current market's elevated valuations against the potential for continued corporate earnings growth. Its competitive expense ratio and strong liquidity make it an attractive option, but understanding the nuanced performance and composition relative to similar funds is key for optimal portfolio fit.

📊 Appendix

Top 10 Holdings (80+ of ETF Value)

#	Ticker	Logo	Name	Sector	Weight
1	NVDA	N	NVIDIA Corp	Technology	6.7%
2	AAPL	A	Apple Inc	Technology	5.5%
3	MSFT	M	Microsoft Corp	Technology	5.0%
4	AMZN	A	Amazon.com Inc	Consumer Cyclical	3.4%
5	GOOGL	A	Alphabet Inc Class A	Communication Services	2.9%
6	GOOG	A	Alphabet Inc Class C	Communication Services	2.3%
7	AVGO	B	Broadcom Inc	Technology	2.3%
8	META	M	Meta Platforms Inc	Communication Services	2.1%
9	TSLA	T	Tesla Inc	Consumer Cyclical	1.9%
10	BRKB	B	Berkshire Hathaway Inc Class B	Financials	1.3%

Fund Mechanics

How It Works

The iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market ETF (ITOT) aims to replicate the performance of the S&P Total Market Index, which comprehensively measures the U.S. equity market by including large-, mid-, small-, and micro-cap stocks. As a passively managed fund, ITOT employs a representative sampling strategy rather than full replication. This involves investing in a portfolio of securities that collectively has an investment profile similar to that of the underlying index, thereby aiming to minimize tracking error while maintaining cost efficiency. The fund is rebalanced and reconstituted in line with the index methodology to ensure continuous alignment with the broad U.S. equity market.

Holdings Breakdown

Number of Holdings

2515

Top 10 Concentration

3326.0%

Top 20 Concentration

4500.0%

Turnover Rate

300%

Category	Weight	Description
Information Technology	31.7%	Companies involved in software, hardware, semiconductors, and IT services.
Financials	13.2%	Financial institutions, banks, insurance companies, and real estate firms.
Consumer Discretionary	10.6%	Companies providing non-essential goods and services, sensitive to economic cycles.
Health Care	10.1%	Pharmaceuticals, biotech, healthcare providers, and medical equipment manufacturers.
Industrials	10.0%	Manufacturing, aerospace, transportation, and industrial services.
Communication Services	9.8%	Telecommunications, media, entertainment, and interactive media.
Consumer Defensive	4.7%	Companies providing essential goods and services, less sensitive to economic cycles.
Energy	3.2%	Companies involved in the exploration, production, and refining of oil and gas.
Basic Materials	2.3%	Companies engaged in mining, chemicals, and construction materials.
Real Estate	2.2%	Real estate investment trusts (REITs) and real estate management/development.
Utilities	2.2%	Electric, gas, and water utilities.
Cash and/or Derivatives	0.1%	Cash and short-term investments or derivative positions for liquidity and tracking.

Cost Efficiency

Expense Ratio

3.00%

Median Bid-Ask Spread

1.000%

Performance History

Year	ETF Return	Benchmark Return	Tracking Diff	Volatility	Max Drawdown	Sharpe Ratio
2025	17.02%	17.05%	-0.03%	N/A	N/A	N/A
2024	23.82%	23.87%	-0.05%	N/A	N/A	N/A
2023	26.11%	26.06%	0.05%	N/A	N/A	N/A
2022	-19.51%	-19.53%	0.02%	N/A	N/A	N/A
2021	25.64%	25.66%	-0.02%	N/A	N/A	N/A

Annualized Return Since Inception

10.37%

Detailed Peer Comparison

Ticker	Name	Issuer	Exp Ratio	AUM (B)	1Y	3Y	5Y	Yield	StdDev 3Y	Sharpe 3Y	Spread
VTI	Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF	Vanguard	3.00%	US$584.6B	17.1%	22.3%	13.1%	1.11%	N/A	N/A	N/A
SCHB	Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF	Charles Schwab	3.00%	US$38.9B	17.0%	22.3%	13.1%	1.23%	12.60%	N/A	N/A
IWV	iShares Russell 3000 ETF	BlackRock	20.00%	US$18.5B	16.9%	22.0%	13.0%	0.95%	12.54%	1.39	N/A
Category Average			8.67%	—	17.0%	22.2%	13.1%	1.13%	—	N/A	—

Risk Metrics

Beta

1.05

Standard Deviation

1 Year	3 Years	5 Years	10 Years
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Sharpe Ratio

1Y	3Y	5Y	10Y
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Sortino Ratio

3 Years	5 Years
N/A	N/A

Maximum Drawdown

1 Year	3 Years	5 Years	Since Inception
N/A	N/A	N/A	-50.76%

Correlations

Liquidity & Trading

Volume

Avg Daily Shares

4,816,550

Avg Daily Dollar Volume

US$729.9M

Trend

stable

Bid-Ask Spread

Metric	Value
Median (Percent)	1.000%
Median (Dollar)	US$0.02
During Hours	N/A
At Close	N/A
Volatility	low

Premium/Discount to NAV

Metric	Value
Current	42.77%
30-Day Average	N/A
1-Year Average	N/A
Standard Deviation	N/A
Max Premium (1Y)	N/A
Max Discount (1Y)	N/A

Creation/Redemption Activity

Trend

Not available

Net Flows

Period	Net Flow

⚠️ Disclaimer: This ETF research report is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell securities. EC² Invest is not a registered investment advisor. All data is sourced from public sources and may contain errors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. ETF investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.