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MongoDB, Inc.
Technology | Software - Infrastructure
⚡ Executive Summary
📊 THE BOTTOM LINE
MongoDB, Inc. offers a leading general-purpose NoSQL database platform, MongoDB Atlas, driving significant revenue growth through cloud adoption. Despite strong top-line expansion, the company is not yet consistently profitable on a GAAP basis, reflecting its investment phase in a highly competitive market. Its developer-friendly approach and multi-cloud strategy are key differentiators.
⚖️ RISK VS REWARD
At its current price of US$409.62, MDB trades with a potential upside of approximately 5.7% to the average analyst target of US$432.93, but a significant downside of 39% to the low target of US$250. The valuation reflects high growth expectations, suggesting a balanced to slightly unfavorable risk/reward profile for new long-term investors given current unprofitability.
🚀 WHY MDB COULD SOAR
- • Sustained high growth of MongoDB Atlas as enterprises accelerate cloud migration and embrace NoSQL databases for modern applications, exceeding current analyst expectations.
- • Achieving consistent GAAP profitability sooner than anticipated through operating leverage and disciplined cost management, which could lead to a significant re-rating of the stock's valuation.
- • Successful product innovation and expansion into new adjacent data services, widening its total addressable market and increasing customer stickiness, driving higher average revenue per user.
⚠️ WHAT COULD GO WRONG
- • Intensified competition from large cloud providers (AWS, Azure, GCP) and traditional database vendors (Oracle), potentially eroding MongoDB's market share and pricing power in the rapidly evolving DBaaS market.
- • A slowdown in global IT spending or enterprise cloud adoption due to macroeconomic headwinds, impacting new customer acquisition and expansion rates for MongoDB's subscription offerings.
- • Execution risks related to scaling operations profitably while maintaining innovation and customer satisfaction, leading to continued GAAP losses or slower progress towards positive free cash flow.
🏢 Company Overview
💰 How MDB Makes Money
- • MongoDB generates revenue primarily through its database platform, catering to developers and enterprises worldwide.
- • Its core offerings include MongoDB Atlas, a hosted multi-cloud database-as-a-service (DBaaS) solution, which allows customers to run their databases across various cloud environments.
- • Another key product is MongoDB Enterprise Advanced, a commercial database server designed for enterprise customers for on-premises, cloud, or hybrid deployments.
- • The company also offers professional services, including consulting and training, to support the implementation and optimization of its database solutions.
Revenue Breakdown
MongoDB Atlas (Subscription)
71%
Hosted multi-cloud database-as-a-service.
MongoDB Enterprise Advanced (Subscription & Other)
26%
Commercial database server for enterprise customers.
Professional Services
3%
Consulting and training for database solutions.
🎯 WHY THIS MATTERS
This revenue model is crucial as it leverages the growing trend of cloud adoption and the demand for flexible, scalable database solutions. The high percentage of recurring subscription revenue, particularly from Atlas, indicates a strong foundation for future growth and predictable income streams, albeit with current unprofitability.
⭐ Competitive Advantage: What Makes MDB Special
1. Developer-Friendly NoSQL Platform
MongoDB's document-oriented NoSQL database is highly favored by developers for its flexibility, scalability, and intuitive data model, which aligns well with modern application development. This ease of use and ability to handle diverse data types significantly reduces development time and complexity, fostering a strong developer community and ecosystem. This strong developer mindshare creates a barrier to entry for competitors.
2. Multi-Cloud & DBaaS Leadership (MongoDB Atlas)
MongoDB Atlas provides a fully managed, multi-cloud database service, allowing customers to deploy across AWS, Google Cloud, and Azure. This flexibility reduces vendor lock-in and simplifies database operations, making it highly attractive to enterprises. Atlas's comprehensive feature set and global distribution capabilities solidify its leadership in the rapidly expanding Database-as-a-Service market.
3. Open-Source Foundation & Freemium Model
Originating from an open-source project, MongoDB benefits from a large, active community that contributes to its development and widespread adoption. The 'freemium' model, offering a free Community Server alongside commercial products, serves as an effective top-of-funnel strategy to attract users and convert them into paying enterprise customers for advanced features and support.
🎯 WHY THIS MATTERS
These advantages collectively position MongoDB as a key player in the modern data infrastructure landscape. The combination of developer appeal, cloud flexibility, and a strong community fosters a powerful network effect, contributing to its sustained growth and competitive standing against larger, more established database providers.
👔 Who's Running The Show
Chirantan “CJ” Desai
President and Chief Executive Officer
CJ Desai assumed the role of President and CEO of MongoDB in November 2025. Previously, he held leadership positions at Cloudflare and ServiceNow, bringing extensive experience in cloud software and enterprise technology. His background is crucial for scaling MongoDB's cloud offerings and navigating the competitive software infrastructure market.
⚔️ What's The Competition
The database market is highly competitive, fragmented, and dominated by both traditional relational database vendors and increasingly by cloud-native providers offering various database-as-a-service (DBaaS) solutions. MongoDB primarily competes in the NoSQL segment, where its document model offers distinct advantages for flexible data handling and modern application development.
📊 Market Context
- Total Addressable Market - The global Database-as-a-Service market, valued at US$29.6 billion in 2024, is projected to grow at a 19.5% CAGR to US$109.1 billion by 2034, driven by cloud adoption and digital transformation.
- Key Trend - The most important trend is the accelerating shift to cloud-native architectures and the increasing adoption of NoSQL databases for handling diverse, unstructured data and scaling modern web and mobile applications.
Competitor
Description
vs MDB
Oracle Corporation
A long-standing leader in traditional relational databases, now expanding its cloud infrastructure and database offerings.
Oracle's strength is in legacy enterprise systems; it competes with MongoDB through its own NoSQL database services and comprehensive cloud platform, targeting established enterprises with existing Oracle investments.
Amazon DynamoDB (AWS)
Amazon's fully managed, serverless NoSQL database service, part of the broader AWS cloud ecosystem.
DynamoDB offers deep integration with other AWS services and targets AWS-centric users. It competes directly with MongoDB Atlas for cloud-native NoSQL workloads, leveraging AWS's massive cloud market share.
Microsoft Azure Cosmos DB
Microsoft's globally distributed, multi-model database service in the Azure cloud, supporting various NoSQL APIs.
Cosmos DB is a key offering within Azure, appealing to Microsoft ecosystem users. It competes with MongoDB Atlas by offering a highly scalable and globally distributed NoSQL solution with multi-API support, including a MongoDB API compatibility layer.
Apache Cassandra
An open-source, distributed NoSQL database system designed to handle large amounts of data across many commodity servers.
Cassandra offers a robust open-source alternative for large-scale, high-availability deployments. It competes with MongoDB for self-managed NoSQL solutions, particularly for organizations seeking full control over their database infrastructure.
Market Share - NoSQL Database Market
MongoDB
45.97%
Amazon DynamoDB
20%
Apache Cassandra
15%
Others
19.03%
📊 Valuation & Analysis
📈 Wall Street Summary
Analyst Rating Distribution - 1 Strong Sell, 10 Hold, 24 Buy, 6 Strong Buy
1
10
24
6
12-Month Price Target Range
Low Target
US$250
-39%
Average Target
US$433
+6%
High Target
US$525
+28%
Current: US$409.62
🚀 The Bull Case - Upside to US$525
1. Accelerated Cloud Adoption
High Probability
The increasing shift of enterprise workloads to the cloud and growing demand for flexible data architectures will fuel MongoDB Atlas's subscriber growth and expand its market share significantly, driving 20%+ annual revenue growth.
2. Enhanced Product Portfolio
Medium Probability
Introduction of new features and specialized data services within the MongoDB platform (e.g., search, analytics, AI integrations) could increase average revenue per user (ARPU) and broaden the appeal to diverse enterprise use cases, expanding TAM and customer stickiness.
3. Path to Consistent Profitability
Probability
As MongoDB achieves greater scale, operating leverage is expected to improve, leading to positive GAAP net income and free cash flow. This financial maturation could attract a wider investor base and support a higher valuation multiple.
🐻 The Bear Case - Downside to US$250
1. Intense Cloud Vendor Competition
High Probability
Aggressive strategies and pricing from hyperscale cloud providers (AWS, Azure, Google Cloud) offering their own NoSQL DBaaS could pressure MongoDB's growth rates, pricing power, and market share, impacting Atlas's profitability and revenue expansion.
2. Economic Downturn Impact
Medium Probability
A significant global economic slowdown could lead enterprises to delay or reduce IT investments, impacting new customer acquisition, expansion within existing accounts, and overall subscription revenue growth for MongoDB, slowing its path to profitability.
3. Open-Source Community Divergence
Low Probability
Challenges in managing the open-source community's expectations versus commercial product strategy could lead to forks or stronger open-source alternatives, potentially impacting Enterprise Advanced sales and overall market perception of MongoDB's value proposition.
🔮 Final thought: Is this a long term relationship?
Owning MongoDB for a decade hinges on its ability to maintain its leadership in the evolving NoSQL and DBaaS markets against well-capitalized cloud giants. Its developer-first approach and multi-cloud flexibility offer a strong foundation. The key challenge lies in consistently translating top-line growth into sustainable GAAP profitability. Management's strategic execution in product innovation and disciplined spending will be critical. If these are managed well, the secular tailwinds of data growth and cloud adoption suggest a durable, albeit volatile, long-term investment.
📋 Appendix
Financial Performance
Metric
FY 2022
FY 2023
FY 2024
FY 2026 (Est)
FY 2027 (Est)
Income Statement
Revenue
US$0.87B
US$1.28B
US$1.68B
US$2664.69B
US$2984.45B
Gross Profit
US$0.61B
US$0.93B
US$1.26B
US$1908.43B
US$2137.28B
Operating Income
US$-0.29B
US$-0.35B
US$-0.23B
US$-179.03B
US$-200.56B
Net Income
US$-0.31B
US$-0.35B
US$-0.18B
US$-81.44B
US$-91.24B
EPS (Diluted)
-4.75
-5.03
-2.48
-1.00
-1.12
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents
US$0.47B
US$0.46B
US$0.80B
US$875.79B
US$919.58B
Total Assets
US$2.45B
US$2.59B
US$2.87B
US$3745.00B
US$3932.25B
Total Debt
US$1.18B
US$1.18B
US$1.18B
US$34.63B
US$34.63B
Shareholders' Equity
US$0.67B
US$0.74B
US$1.07B
US$3032.86B
US$3184.50B
Key Ratios
Gross Margin
70.3%
72.8%
74.8%
71.6%
71.6%
Operating Margin
-33.1%
-27.0%
-13.9%
-6.7%
-6.7%
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-46.03
-46.71
-16.52
15.00
12.00
Valuation Ratios
| Metric | Value | Description |
|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio (TTM) | N/A | A negative P/E ratio indicates that the company has reported negative earnings over the past twelve months, making the ratio not meaningful for direct comparison. |
| Forward P/E | 74.21 | Measures the projected earnings per share over the next twelve months relative to the current stock price, reflecting investor expectations for future profitability. |
| PEG Ratio | N/A | Compares the P/E ratio to the earnings growth rate, providing context for whether a stock's P/E is justified by its expected growth; currently unavailable. |
| Price/Sales (TTM) | 14.39 | Indicates how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of revenue generated over the trailing twelve months, often used for companies with negative earnings. |
| Price/Book (MRQ) | 11.63 | Measures how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of book value (assets minus liabilities), indicating premium valuation relative to net assets. |
| EV/EBITDA | -169.70 | Compares the enterprise value of a company to its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization; a negative value suggests negative EBITDA, making interpretation complex. |
| Return on Equity (TTM) | -0.03 | Measures a company's profitability in relation to the equity invested by shareholders over the trailing twelve months; a negative value indicates losses. |
| Operating Margin | -0.03 | Represents the percentage of revenue remaining after paying for operating expenses, indicating the efficiency of core business operations; a negative value signifies operating losses. |
Peer Comparison
| Company | Market Cap (B) | P/E Ratio | P/B Ratio | Revenue Growth (%) | Operating Margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MongoDB, Inc. (Target) | 33.34 | N/A | 11.63 | 18.7% | -2.9% |
| Oracle Corporation | 325.00 | 44.59 | 23.30 | 9.7% | 31.6% |
| Microsoft Corporation | 3590.00 | 34.24 | 12.18 | 16.0% | 46.3% |
| Elastic N.V. | 7.45 | N/A | N/A | 17.0% | -2.1% |
| Sector Average | — | 39.42 | 17.74 | 14.2% | 25.3% |