⚠️ This AI-generated report synthesizes publicly available information. AI can make mistakes. Please double check information in this report.
Newmont Corporation
Basic Materials | Gold
⚡ Executive Summary
📊 The Bottom Line
Newmont Corporation is the world's largest gold mining company, with a diverse portfolio that includes copper, silver, zinc, and lead. Its business model benefits from global demand for precious and base metals. The company has strategically expanded through significant acquisitions, enhancing its resource base and operational footprint globally, but it remains susceptible to commodity price fluctuations and inherent mining risks.
⚖️ Risk vs Reward
At its current price of US$112.35, Newmont is trading below the average analyst price target of US$125.67, suggesting potential upside. However, Morningstar has a bearish view with a target of US$70, indicating significant downside risk. The risk-reward profile is largely influenced by the volatile nature of gold and other metal prices, coupled with operational efficiencies and geopolitical stability in its operating regions.
🚀 Why NEM Could Soar
- • Sustained high gold prices due to geopolitical uncertainties or inflation could significantly boost revenue and profitability for Newmont.
- • Successful integration of recent acquisitions, particularly Newcrest, could unlock substantial synergies and expand Newmont's production capacity.
- • Increasing global demand for copper and other byproducts, driven by electrification and industrial growth, could provide additional revenue diversification and upside.
⚠️ What Could Go Wrong
- • A sustained decline in gold and other metal prices, influenced by global economic stabilization or shifts in monetary policy, would directly negatively impact Newmont's earnings.
- • Operational disruptions, such as labor disputes, regulatory changes, or unforeseen geological challenges at key mines, could lead to production shortfalls and increased costs.
- • Geopolitical instability and rising resource nationalism in countries where Newmont operates could lead to higher taxes, permit delays, or even asset expropriation, increasing investment risk.
🏢 Company Overview
💰 How NEM Makes Money
- • Newmont Corporation primarily generates revenue through the extraction and sale of gold from its extensive global mining operations.
- • The company also produces significant quantities of copper, silver, zinc, and lead as byproducts, diversifying its revenue streams beyond solely gold.
- • Revenue is driven by the volume of metals produced and the prevailing market prices for these commodities, which are influenced by global economic and geopolitical factors.
- • Newmont has expanded its operations and resource base through strategic acquisitions, such as Goldcorp and Newcrest, aiming for economies of scale and portfolio optimization.
Revenue Breakdown
Gold Sales
88%
Primary revenue from the sale of extracted gold, the company's core business.
Copper and Other Metals Sales
12%
Revenue generated from the sale of byproducts like copper, silver, zinc, and lead.
🎯 WHY THIS MATTERS
Newmont's diversified revenue stream, while heavily reliant on gold, provides a hedge against price volatility in any single commodity. The global nature of its operations helps mitigate regional risks, but overall profitability remains highly sensitive to the cyclical nature of metal markets.
⭐ Competitive Advantage: What Makes NEM Special
1. Unparalleled Scale and Geographic Diversification
As the world's largest gold miner, Newmont benefits from immense economies of scale across its 11 mines and joint ventures spanning the Americas, Africa, Australia, and Papua New Guinea. This global footprint significantly reduces reliance on any single region, offering resilience against localized operational, political, or regulatory risks and providing a broad base for resource replacement.
2. Extensive Reserve Base
Newmont boasts a substantial portfolio of long-life assets, including approximately two decades of gold reserves and significant byproduct reserves. This extensive reserve base ensures long-term production visibility and provides flexibility in mine planning and capital allocation, distinguishing it from competitors with shorter mine lives and higher reliance on constant exploration success.
3. Byproduct Value Stream
Beyond gold, Newmont produces material amounts of copper, silver, zinc, and lead. These byproducts provide valuable revenue diversification and contribute to lower net cash costs for gold production. The increasing demand for base metals, particularly copper for electrification, enhances the economic value of Newmont's overall mineral endowment and hedges against pure gold price movements.
🎯 WHY THIS MATTERS
These competitive advantages collectively reinforce Newmont's position as a leading, resilient player in the volatile mining industry. Its scale, deep reserve base, and diversified product offering provide operational stability and long-term value creation potential, even amidst fluctuating commodity prices and challenging geopolitical landscapes.
👔 Who's Running The Show
Natascha Viljoen
CEO, President & Director
Natascha Viljoen, 55, serves as CEO, President & Director. With extensive experience in the mining sector, she leads Newmont's global operations and strategic direction. Her role is crucial in navigating the complexities of the gold and metals markets, overseeing acquisitions like Newcrest, and ensuring sustainable operational performance and growth for the world's largest gold producer.
⚔️ What's The Competition
The gold mining industry is highly competitive, capital-intensive, and cyclical, heavily influenced by global commodity prices, exploration success, and geopolitical stability. Key players compete on factors such as cost efficiency, quality of reserve base, operational scale, and environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance. The market is moderately consolidated at the top, with a few large global miners dominating production. These companies are subject to significant regulatory oversight and require substantial capital investment for both new projects and maintaining existing operations.
📊 Market Context
- Total Addressable Market - The global gold market was valued at US$308.32 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to US$513.00 billion by 2034, driven by investment demand, jewelry, and industrial uses.
- Key Trend - Heightened geopolitical instability and economic uncertainty are driving strong investment and central bank demand for gold, pushing prices to record highs.
Competitor
Description
vs NEM
Barrick Gold Corporation (GOLD)
One of the world's largest gold mining companies, with significant operations in North America, South America, Africa, and the Middle East.
Similar in scale and geographic reach, Barrick competes directly with Newmont for top-tier assets and operational efficiency. It has a strong focus on copper as a key byproduct.
AngloGold Ashanti Limited (AU)
A global gold mining company with operations and projects in Africa, Australia, and the Americas.
A major global producer, AngloGold Ashanti is smaller than Newmont but has a diverse portfolio. It faces similar operational and geopolitical challenges, competing for resource quality and cost control.
Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC)
A senior gold mining company with operations and projects in the United States, Brazil, Chile, Ghana, Mauritania, and Russia.
Kinross is another significant global gold producer, focusing on a balance of production and development projects. It competes with Newmont on efficiency and reserve replacement, though with a smaller market capitalization.
📊 Valuation & Analysis
📈 Wall Street Summary
Analyst Rating Distribution - 1 Sell, 3 Hold, 12 Buy, 5 Strong Buy
1
3
12
5
12-Month Price Target Range
Low Target
US$70
-38%
Average Target
US$126
+12%
High Target
US$172
+53%
Closing: US$112.35 (30 Jan 2026)
🚀 The Bull Case - Upside to US$172
1. Sustained High Gold Prices
High Probability
Persistent global economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and inflationary pressures could drive gold prices significantly higher, boosting Newmont's revenue and expanding profit margins beyond current expectations. Each US$100/oz increase in gold price has a substantial positive impact on free cash flow.
2. Successful Integration of Newcrest Acquisition
Medium Probability
If Newmont effectively integrates Newcrest's assets, it could unlock substantial operational synergies, optimize asset portfolios, and achieve cost efficiencies. This would lead to higher consolidated production volumes at lower average costs, enhancing overall profitability and market share.
3. Increasing Demand for Copper Byproducts
Medium Probability
The accelerating global energy transition and growth in electric vehicles are driving unprecedented demand for copper. Newmont's significant copper byproduct production positions it to capitalize on rising copper prices, providing a substantial, additional revenue stream and reducing reliance on gold alone.
🐻 The Bear Case - Downside to US$70
1. Decline in Commodity Prices
High Probability
A significant and sustained drop in gold, copper, or other metal prices, perhaps due to global economic stabilization or less accommodative monetary policies, would directly reduce Newmont's revenues and profitability. This could lead to asset impairments and reduced cash flows for reinvestment or dividends.
2. Operational Disruptions and Cost Inflation
Medium Probability
Newmont faces risks from unexpected operational issues, such as equipment failures, geological challenges, or labor disputes. Furthermore, persistent inflation in energy, labor, and supplies could drive up mining costs, eroding profit margins even with stable commodity prices and impacting overall financial performance.
3. Geopolitical and Regulatory Risks
Medium Probability
Operating in diverse international jurisdictions exposes Newmont to significant geopolitical and regulatory risks, including resource nationalism, changes in mining laws, higher taxes, or political instability. Such events could disrupt operations, increase costs, or lead to loss of social license, negatively impacting long-term asset value.
🔮 Final thought: Is this a long term relationship?
Owning Newmont for a decade hinges on a belief in the long-term value of gold and other essential metals, and the company's ability to navigate cyclical commodity markets. Its vast reserve base and diversified operations provide inherent durability. However, successful leadership succession and adept management of geopolitical and environmental challenges are paramount. Investors must be comfortable with commodity price volatility and the capital-intensive nature of mining. The company's continued focus on operational excellence and strategic portfolio management will be key to sustaining its competitive advantages and delivering shareholder returns over the long haul.
📋 Appendix
Financial Performance
Metric
31 Dec 2024
31 Dec 2023
31 Dec 2022
Income Statement
Revenue
US$18.68B
US$11.81B
US$11.91B
Gross Profit
US$7.14B
US$3.00B
US$3.26B
Operating Income
US$5.91B
US$0.71B
US$1.60B
Net Income
US$3.35B
US$-2.49B
US$-0.43B
EPS (Diluted)
2.92
-2.94
-0.54
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents
US$3.62B
US$3.00B
US$2.88B
Total Assets
US$56.35B
US$55.51B
US$38.48B
Total Debt
US$8.97B
US$9.44B
US$6.13B
Shareholders' Equity
US$29.93B
US$29.03B
US$19.35B
Key Ratios
Gross Margin
38.2%
25.4%
27.4%
Operating Margin
31.6%
6.0%
13.5%
Return on Equity
11.19
-8.59
-2.22
Analyst Estimates
Metric
Annual (31 Dec 2025)
Annual (31 Dec 2026)
EPS Estimate
US$6.39
US$8.40
EPS Growth
+83.7%
+31.4%
Revenue Estimate
US$22.1B
US$26.0B
Revenue Growth
+18.4%
+17.5%
Number of Analysts
17
17
Valuation Ratios
| Metric | Value | Description |
|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio (TTM) | 19.71 | The P/E ratio (price-to-earnings) measures the current share price relative to its trailing twelve-month earnings per share, indicating how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of earnings. |
| Forward P/E | 13.37 | The forward P/E ratio uses estimated future earnings to calculate a company's valuation, providing insight into market expectations for future profitability. |
| Price/Sales (TTM) | 5.74 | The Price/Sales ratio (price-to-sales) compares a company’s market capitalization to its total revenue over the trailing twelve months, useful for valuing companies with inconsistent earnings. |
| Price/Book (MRQ) | 3.70 | The Price/Book ratio (price-to-book) compares a company’s market value to its book value per share from the most recent quarter, indicating how investors value the company’s net assets. |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.00 | The EV/EBITDA (Enterprise Value to Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) ratio assesses a company's total value relative to its operating profitability, often used for cross-industry comparisons. |
| Return on Equity (TTM) | 22.88 | Return on Equity (ROE) measures a company’s profitability in relation to shareholders’ equity over the trailing twelve months, showing how efficiently management uses shareholder investments to generate profits. |
| Operating Margin | 46.85 | Operating Margin indicates the percentage of revenue left after deducting operating expenses, reflecting a company's operational efficiency before interest and taxes. |
Peer Comparison
| Company | Market Cap (B) | P/E Ratio | P/B Ratio | Revenue Growth (%) | Operating Margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newmont Corporation (NEM) (Target) | 123.41 | 19.71 | 3.70 | 20.0% | 46.9% |
| Barrick Gold Corporation (GOLD) | 77.13 | 21.60 | 2.88 | 0.1% | 46.8% |
| AngloGold Ashanti Limited (AU) | 46.89 | 20.79 | 6.10 | 26.0% | 26.8% |
| Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) | 45.79 | 21.95 | 4.80 | 32.9% | 41.2% |
| Sector Average | — | 21.45 | 4.59 | 19.6% | 38.3% |