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Rubrik, Inc.
Technology | Software - Infrastructure
⚡ Executive Summary
📊 THE BOTTOM LINE
Rubrik, Inc. provides critical data security solutions across cloud, SaaS, and on-premises environments. While operating in a high-growth market with a strong subscription model, the company faces stiff competition and is currently unprofitable. Its unified platform addresses modern cyber threats, but profitability remains a key challenge.
⚖️ RISK VS REWARD
With a current price of US$86.27 and a high price-to-sales multiple, Rubrik's valuation suggests significant future growth is already factored in. The analyst price target range of US$97 to US$130 indicates potential upside, but ongoing unprofitability and competitive pressures present notable downside risks. The risk/reward appears balanced.
🚀 WHY RBRK COULD SOAR
- • The global data protection market is projected for substantial growth, offering a large and expanding addressable market for Rubrik's specialized solutions.
- • Strategic partnerships, such as the one with Cognizant, can extend Rubrik's market reach and facilitate the delivery of business resilience-as-a-service, bolstering subscription revenue.
- • Increasing enterprise adoption of cloud and SaaS platforms drives sustained demand for Rubrik's core cloud-native and SaaS data protection offerings.
⚠️ WHAT COULD GO WRONG
- • The data security market is intensely competitive, potentially leading to pricing pressures, market share loss, and slower-than-anticipated revenue growth.
- • Rubrik's consistent unprofitability, marked by negative net income and EPS, could erode investor confidence and limit future operational investments if sustained.
- • A high valuation based on growth expectations makes the stock particularly vulnerable to any deceleration in revenue or broader macroeconomic headwinds impacting IT spending.
🏢 Company Overview
💰 How RBRK Makes Money
- • Rubrik offers comprehensive enterprise data protection solutions, safeguarding critical business data in hybrid and multi-cloud environments.
- • The company specializes in protecting data residing in cloud platforms and SaaS applications, addressing the growing need for security beyond traditional on-premises infrastructure.
- • Rubrik provides advanced data threat analytics, data security posture management, and cyber recovery capabilities to proactively identify and rapidly remediate cyberattacks.
Revenue Breakdown
Subscription
92.93%
Recurring revenue from software licenses and cloud-based data security services.
Other
6.3%
Includes miscellaneous revenue streams not categorized as subscriptions or maintenance.
Maintenance
0.77%
Revenue generated from ongoing support and maintenance services for its products.
🎯 WHY THIS MATTERS
Rubrik's predominantly subscription-based revenue model provides a stable and predictable income stream, fostering long-term customer relationships. This focus aligns with the industry shift towards recurring services, positioning the company for consistent growth as demand for integrated data security escalates.
⭐ Competitive Advantage: What Makes RBRK Special
1. Unified Data Security Platform
Rubrik integrates data protection, security, and governance into a single, comprehensive platform. This unified approach simplifies management for enterprises across diverse environments—cloud, on-premises, and SaaS—reducing operational complexity and offering a holistic view of data security. This integration is a critical advantage over disparate, siloed security tools.
2. AI-Powered Threat Intelligence
The company leverages advanced artificial intelligence and machine learning to detect anomalous data access patterns and potential cyber threats, such as ransomware, in real time. This proactive, intelligent threat detection capability enables quicker identification and response to emerging attacks, significantly enhancing cyber resilience for its clients.
3. Cloud-Native Architecture
Rubrik's solutions are built from the ground up with cloud-native principles, ensuring seamless scalability, performance, and cost efficiency in protecting cloud and SaaS data. This architectural advantage allows for superior integration and optimization within modern, dynamic cloud environments compared to legacy solutions that have been adapted for the cloud.
🎯 WHY THIS MATTERS
These core advantages collectively enable Rubrik to deliver a highly effective, integrated data security offering that addresses the complex challenges of modern IT infrastructures. This differentiation enhances customer loyalty and positions the company as a key player in the critical and growing cybersecurity landscape.
👔 Who's Running The Show
Bipul Sinha
CEO, Chairman and Co-founder
Bipul Sinha is an entrepreneur and venture capitalist who co-founded Rubrik in 2013, assuming the CEO role in 2014. He has been instrumental in shaping Rubrik's vision as a leader in data security, guiding its focus on cloud-native and AI-driven solutions for enterprise data protection.
⚔️ What's The Competition
The data security and protection market is characterized by intense competition from a diverse group of players, ranging from specialized backup and recovery vendors to large enterprise software companies. Key competitive factors include product comprehensiveness, cloud integration, ease of use, and pricing, with a growing emphasis on AI-driven threat intelligence and rapid recovery capabilities.
📊 Market Context
- Total Addressable Market - The global data protection market is valued at US$172.67B in 2025, projected to reach US$505.98B by 2032, driven by rising cyber threats and cloud adoption.
- Key Trend - Enterprises are increasingly adopting unified, AI-powered data security platforms that integrate backup, recovery, and threat detection, moving away from siloed solutions.
Competitor
Description
vs RBRK
Commvault Systems (CVLT)
A long-standing provider of enterprise data backup, recovery, and data management solutions, offering broad platform support.
Commvault has a strong traditional backup presence, while Rubrik differentiates with its cloud-native architecture and integrated security posture.
Zscaler (ZS)
A leader in cloud security, providing a Zero Trust Exchange platform for secure access to applications and data.
Zscaler focuses on network and access security, whereas Rubrik specializes in data security, protection, and recovery. There is some overlap in securing data in the cloud, but different primary offerings.
Palo Alto Networks (PANW)
A global leader in cybersecurity, offering firewalls, cloud security, and security operations solutions.
Palo Alto Networks provides broader cybersecurity solutions, including network and endpoint protection, while Rubrik's core expertise is data-centric security and recovery.
Market Share - Data Protection Software Market
Rubrik
10%
Commvault
15%
Zscaler
10%
Others
65%
📊 Valuation & Analysis
📈 Wall Street Summary
Analyst Rating Distribution - 1 Hold, 20 Buy, 2 Strong Buy
1
20
2
12-Month Price Target Range
Low Target
US$97
+12%
Average Target
US$115
+33%
High Target
US$130
+51%
Current: US$86.27
🚀 The Bull Case - Upside to US$130
1. Robust Subscription Revenue Acceleration
High Probability
With subscriptions comprising over 90% of total revenue, sustained high growth in this segment will drive predictable, high-margin income and increase customer lifetime value. A 20% annual increase in subscriptions could add over US$160M to revenue.
2. Successful Expansion into New Markets
Medium Probability
Successfully expanding into new geographic regions or untapped industry verticals could significantly enlarge Rubrik's addressable market. This could unlock hundreds of millions in additional revenue, accelerating overall growth rates beyond current projections.
3. Leadership in AI-Driven Data Security
High Probability
Continued innovation and market leadership in AI/ML-powered threat detection and automated cyber recovery solutions will enhance product differentiation. This could attract premium customers, enable stronger pricing power, and expand market share in a critical security segment.
🐻 The Bear Case - Downside to US$97
1. Intensified Competitive and Pricing Pressures
High Probability
The crowded data security market, with new entrants and aggressive strategies from incumbents, could lead to intensified pricing competition. This could compress Rubrik's gross and operating margins, potentially reducing revenue growth by 5-10% and impacting profitability.
2. Macroeconomic Headwinds on IT Spending
Medium Probability
A global economic slowdown could cause enterprises to tighten their IT budgets, particularly for new software subscriptions and security upgrades. This deferral of spending could directly impact Rubrik's sales pipeline and renewal rates, leading to a 10-15% reduction in projected revenue growth.
3. Execution Risk in Product Innovation
Medium Probability
Failure to continuously innovate and deliver cutting-edge data security solutions could lead to a loss of competitive advantage and customer churn. In a fast-evolving threat landscape, product stagnation could result in market share erosion and long-term decline in profitability.
🔮 Final thought: Is this a long term relationship?
Owning Rubrik for a decade implies confidence in its ability to navigate a highly competitive, rapidly evolving cybersecurity market while achieving sustained profitability. Its unified, cloud-native data security platform addresses critical enterprise needs, but consistent innovation against sophisticated threats and strong execution in a crowded field are paramount. Long-term success hinges on management's ability to convert strong revenue growth into positive earnings and free cash flow amidst intense competition and shifting technological landscapes.
📋 Appendix
Financial Performance
Metric
FY 2022
FY 2023
FY 2024
FY2026 (Est)
FY2027 (Est)
Income Statement
Revenue
US$0.51B
US$0.60B
US$0.63B
US$1.20B
US$1.55B
Gross Profit
US$0.35B
US$0.42B
US$0.48B
US$0.95B
US$1.23B
Operating Income
US$-0.25B
US$-0.26B
US$-0.31B
US$-0.26B
US$-0.34B
Net Income
US$-0.25B
US$-0.28B
US$-0.35B
US$-0.38B
US$-0.49B
EPS (Diluted)
-1.45
-1.58
-2.01
-1.34
-2.48
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents
US$0.07B
US$0.14B
US$0.13B
US$1.60B
US$1.76B
Total Assets
US$0.52B
US$0.77B
US$0.87B
US$2.39B
US$2.63B
Total Debt
US$0.01B
US$0.19B
US$0.30B
US$1.13B
US$1.19B
Shareholders' Equity
US$-0.82B
US$-1.09B
US$-1.42B
US$-0.56B
US$-0.76B
Key Ratios
Gross Margin
69.8%
69.7%
76.9%
79.1%
79.1%
Operating Margin
-49.4%
-43.6%
-48.8%
-21.6%
-21.6%
Quick Ratio
31.05
25.54
24.95
1.57
1.57
Valuation Ratios
| Metric | Value | Description |
|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio (TTM) | N/A | The Price-to-Earnings ratio (TTM) indicates how much investors are willing to pay per dollar of past earnings; it's undefined for companies with negative earnings. |
| Forward P/E | -64.38 | The Forward Price-to-Earnings ratio uses estimated future earnings to gauge valuation, helpful for growth companies even if currently unprofitable. |
| PEG Ratio | N/A | The Price/Earnings to Growth ratio measures a stock's valuation relative to its earnings growth rate, providing context for high-growth companies. |
| Price/Sales (TTM) | 14.24 | The Price-to-Sales ratio (TTM) indicates how much investors are paying for each dollar of revenue generated over the past twelve months, often used for unprofitable companies. |
| Price/Book (MRQ) | N/A | The Price-to-Book ratio (MRQ) compares a company’s market value to its book value, providing insight into how investors value its net assets, and is undefined for negative book value. |
| EV/EBITDA | -32.41 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA measures a company's total value relative to its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, often used for comparing companies with differing capital structures. |
| Return on Equity (TTM) | N/A | Return on Equity (TTM) measures a company's profitability in relation to shareholders' equity over the trailing twelve months, showing how efficiently equity is used to generate profits. |
| Operating Margin | -21.56 | Operating Margin indicates the percentage of revenue left after paying for operating expenses, reflecting a company's operational efficiency and profitability before interest and taxes. |
Peer Comparison
| Company | Market Cap (B) | P/E Ratio | P/B Ratio | Revenue Growth (%) | Operating Margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rubrik, Inc. (Target) | 17.03 | N/A | N/A | 48.3% | -21.6% |
| Commvault Systems (CVLT) | 5.44 | 67.73 | 26.04 | 22.3% | 8.3% |
| Zscaler (ZS) | 38.70 | -895.11 | 18.12 | 23.3% | -0.5% |
| Palo Alto Networks (PANW) | 129.19 | 110.99 | 14.31 | 15.3% | 17.3% |
| Sector Average | — | 89.36 | 19.49 | 20.3% | 8.3% |