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NuScale Power Corporation
Industrials | Specialty Industrial Machinery
⚡ Executive Summary
📊 The Bottom Line
NuScale Power Corporation is an early-stage developer of small modular reactor (SMR) technology, offering a promising solution for carbon-free baseload power. While pioneering, the company operates in a highly capital-intensive and regulated industry, currently incurring significant losses as it moves towards commercial deployment.
⚖️ Risk vs Reward
At current levels, NuScale presents a high-risk, high-reward proposition. The valuation is largely based on future SMR adoption, which carries substantial regulatory and execution risks. Potential upside exists if projects materialize and technology gains widespread acceptance, contrasting with the downside of continued losses and project delays.
🚀 Why SMR Could Soar
- • First mover advantage with NRC-certified SMR technology, potentially accelerating deployment and market penetration.
- • Increasing global demand for clean, reliable baseload energy, driven by decarbonization goals and energy security concerns.
- • Significant government support and funding for SMR development and deployment in key markets like the US and Romania.
⚠️ What Could Go Wrong
- • Delays in project execution, regulatory approvals, and cost overruns could strain financials and push back profitability.
- • Intense competition from other SMR developers and established energy sources, potentially limiting market share.
- • Public concerns over nuclear safety and waste management could hinder widespread adoption and project acceptance.
🏢 Company Overview
💰 How SMR Makes Money
- • NuScale develops and sells its proprietary small modular reactor (SMR) technology, the NuScale Power Module (NPM), a 77-megawatt electric (MWe) water reactor.
- • Revenue is primarily generated from licensing its SMR technology, engineering services, and early-stage development contracts with utilities and government entities.
- • The company aims to provide scalable, carbon-free baseload power solutions for various applications, including power generation, desalination, and industrial process heat.
Revenue Breakdown
Technology and Services Sales
100%
Revenue primarily derived from licensing, engineering, and early development contracts related to SMR technology.
🎯 WHY THIS MATTERS
NuScale's business model is centered on a nascent but potentially transformative technology. Success hinges on transitioning from R&D to commercial-scale deployment, requiring substantial capital investment and navigating complex regulatory environments for long-term viability.
⭐ Competitive Advantage: What Makes SMR Special
1. NRC Design Certification
NuScale is the first and currently only SMR technology provider to have its design certified by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). This significant regulatory milestone streamlines the path to deployment in the US, providing a substantial lead over competitors and enhancing credibility for international projects. This certification reduces licensing risks and costs for potential customers.
2. Proprietary SMR Technology (NPM)
The NuScale Power Module (NPM) features passive safety systems, making it inherently safer and simpler to operate than traditional large reactors. Its modular design allows for factory fabrication and scalable deployment in multi-module configurations (VOYGR plants), offering flexibility and reduced construction timelines. This distinct technological approach addresses critical industry pain points of cost and safety.
3. Strategic Partnerships and Early Projects
NuScale has secured key partnerships and is engaged in early-stage deployment programs, such as the Carbon Free Power Project with Utah Associated Municipal Power Systems and a Phase 2 FEED study for a power plant in Romania. These collaborations provide critical funding, operational experience, and a visible pathway towards commercialization, building confidence among future customers and investors.
🎯 WHY THIS MATTERS
NuScale's strengths lie in its regulatory lead, innovative technology, and strategic project pipeline within the emerging SMR market. These advantages position the company to potentially capture significant market share as the global energy transition accelerates, though successful execution remains paramount.
👔 Who's Running The Show
John Lawrence Hopkins
President, CEO & Director
Mr. Hopkins, 71, serves as President, CEO, and Director. His leadership is crucial in steering NuScale through the complex regulatory landscape and towards commercializing its SMR technology. With a career rooted in the energy sector, his experience is vital for securing partnerships and navigating the nuclear industry's unique challenges.
⚔️ What's The Competition
The small modular reactor market is nascent but intensely competitive, with numerous players vying for market leadership. Competition comes from other SMR developers, traditional nuclear energy companies, and alternative clean energy sources. Key differentiating factors include regulatory approval status, technological readiness, cost, and the ability to secure funding and initial projects.
📊 Market Context
- Total Addressable Market - The global SMR market was US$6.3 billion in 2023, projected to reach US$13.8 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 9.1% (2024-2032), driven by increasing energy needs and decarbonization.
- Key Trend - Accelerated demand for clean, dispatchable power for data centers and industrial processes is a key driver for SMR adoption.
Competitor
Description
vs SMR
X-Energy LLC
Developer of advanced small modular reactors, including the Xe-100 high-temperature gas-cooled reactor.
Competes with a different reactor technology (HTGR vs. NuScale's pressurized water reactor), targeting diverse applications.
Westinghouse Electric Company LLC
Global nuclear energy leader, developing various SMR designs, including the AP300, a smaller version of its AP1000 reactor.
Leverages extensive experience in traditional nuclear power, offering strong credibility but potentially slower SMR-specific development compared to pure-play SMR companies like NuScale.
BWXT Technologies Inc.
Provides nuclear components and fuel, and is involved in advanced reactor development and nuclear services.
A diversified nuclear technology company with strong manufacturing capabilities, making it a potential supplier or competitor in specific SMR components/services rather than a direct SMR developer.
📊 Valuation & Analysis
📈 Wall Street Summary
Analyst Rating Distribution - 2 Strong Sell, 1 Sell, 7 Hold, 6 Buy, 1 Strong Buy
2
1
7
6
1
12-Month Price Target Range
Low Target
US$15
-14%
Average Target
US$34
+96%
High Target
US$60
+243%
Closing: US$17.48 (30 Jan 2026)
🚀 The Bull Case - Upside to US$60
1. Successful Project Deployments
Medium Probability
Successful commercial operation of early projects, such as the Carbon Free Power Project, would validate NuScale's technology and business model, attracting more customers and potentially leading to significant revenue growth and profitability.
2. Expanding Global Demand
High Probability
Increased adoption of SMRs in new markets (e.g., Eastern Europe, Asia) driven by energy security and decarbonization could significantly expand NuScale's addressable market and accelerate its sales pipeline, boosting long-term revenue.
3. Cost Reduction and Scalability
Medium Probability
As NuScale moves from first-of-a-kind deployments to standardized, factory-fabricated modules, manufacturing efficiencies and economies of scale could drastically reduce costs, improving margins and making SMRs more competitive against other energy sources.
🐻 The Bear Case - Downside to US$15
1. Regulatory Delays and Cost Overruns
High Probability
Prolonged regulatory processes, licensing challenges, or unexpected technical issues could delay project timelines and lead to substantial cost overruns, severely impacting NuScale's financial position and investor confidence.
2. Competition and Market Share Erosion
Medium Probability
Aggressive competition from other SMR developers or advances in alternative clean energy technologies could lead to pricing pressure, reduced market share, and difficulties in securing sufficient customer contracts to achieve profitability.
3. Financing and Capital Intensive Nature
High Probability
Developing and deploying nuclear technology is highly capital-intensive. Failure to secure adequate long-term financing or manage cash burn effectively could impede NuScale's ability to execute its strategy and achieve commercial scale.
🔮 Final thought: Is this a long term relationship?
Owning NuScale Power for a decade hinges on the successful, widespread commercialization of SMR technology and NuScale maintaining its leadership position. The company's NRC certification is a durable advantage, but the nascent market means significant execution and regulatory risks remain. Management's ability to scale manufacturing, control costs, and secure a robust project pipeline will be critical. If SMRs become a cornerstone of global energy, NuScale could be a long-term winner, but the path is likely to be volatile and capital-intensive, requiring patience and a high tolerance for risk.
📋 Appendix
Financial Performance
Metric
31 Dec 2024
31 Dec 2023
31 Dec 2022
Income Statement
Revenue
US$0.04B
US$0.02B
US$0.01B
Gross Profit
US$0.03B
US$0.00B
US$0.00B
Operating Income
US$-0.14B
US$-0.28B
US$-0.23B
Net Income
US$-0.14B
US$-0.06B
US$-0.06B
EPS (Diluted)
-1.47
-0.80
-0.51
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents
US$0.40B
US$0.12B
US$0.22B
Total Assets
US$0.54B
US$0.22B
US$0.35B
Total Debt
US$0.00B
US$0.00B
US$0.00B
Shareholders' Equity
US$0.62B
US$0.09B
US$0.30B
Key Ratios
Gross Margin
86.7%
16.9%
38.0%
Operating Margin
-374.5%
-1208.1%
-1948.4%
Return on Equity
-22.08
-62.45
-19.23
Analyst Estimates
Metric
Annual (31 Dec 2025)
Annual (31 Dec 2026)
EPS Estimate
US$-2.20
US$-0.57
EPS Growth
-49.7%
+74.1%
Revenue Estimate
US$0.0B
US$0.1B
Revenue Growth
+7.2%
+210.7%
Number of Analysts
8
8
Valuation Ratios
| Metric | Value | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E | -29.33 | Reflects how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of estimated future earnings, providing insight into growth expectations. |
| Price/Sales (TTM) | 77.38 | Measures the stock price relative to revenue per share over the past twelve months, often used for companies with inconsistent or negative earnings. |
| Price/Book (MRQ) | 3.53 | Compares the stock price to the company's book value per share from the most recent quarter, indicating how investors value its net assets. |
| EV/EBITDA | -13.94 | Measures the enterprise value against earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, often used to compare companies with varying capital structures, and can be negative for loss-making companies like NuScale. |
| Return on Equity (TTM) | -2.98 | Reveals how much profit a company generates for each dollar of shareholders' equity over the last twelve months, with a negative value indicating net losses. |
| Operating Margin | -5.27 | Shows the percentage of revenue left after paying for operating expenses, reflecting the company's operational efficiency, and a negative value indicates operating losses. |