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iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF

TLT:NASDAQ

bond ETF | passive | iShares | Tracks ICE US Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index

Market Price
US$87.60 (28 Jan 2026)
+0.04% (YoY)
NAV
US$87.76
-0.18% Discount
Yield
4.43%
Expense Ratio
0.15%
-6% vs Avg: 0.16%
Making Headlines

⚡ Executive Summary

📊 The Bottom Line

This ETF invests in US Treasury bonds with remaining maturities greater than or equal to twenty years. It offers a low-cost, liquid way to gain exposure to the long-duration U.S. government bond market. While the bull case suggests a NAV target of US$101.00 (+15.3%), the bear case points to US$77.50 (-11.5%), reflecting interest rate sensitivity.

⚖️ Risk vs Reward

The long-term Treasury bond market is currently positioned at a critical juncture, highly sensitive to interest rate expectations and inflation outlook. Compared to broader market indices, long-duration bonds offer diversification but carry significant interest rate risk, as evidenced by recent volatility. The current yield of 4.40% is near historical highs, providing attractive income. Upside potential is driven by potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, which could significantly boost bond prices. Downside risks include persistent inflation leading to higher-for-longer interest rates, or a stronger-than-expected economy delaying rate cuts. The ETF’s tight tracking error and low expense ratio make it an efficient vehicle for this exposure, but the inherent volatility of long-dated bonds creates an asymmetric risk-reward profile, with potential for substantial price movements in either direction.

🚀 Why TLT Could Soar

  • • Faster-than-expected Federal Reserve rate cuts (e.g., 100bps in 2026) could boost bond prices by an estimated 15% due to high duration.
  • • A flight-to-safety event, such as an economic slowdown or geopolitical tensions, would increase demand for safe-haven Treasuries, pushing prices higher by 5-10%.
  • • Persistent disinflationary trends leading to real yields declining further could drive long-bond valuations higher, potentially adding 5-7% to current prices.

⚠️ What Could Go Wrong

  • • Higher-for-longer interest rates from persistent inflation or robust economic growth could cause bond prices to fall by 7-12% as yields adjust upward.
  • • Increased U.S. Treasury supply to fund government deficits could depress bond prices, creating headwinds for long-duration bonds, potentially a 3-5% price drag.
  • • A hawkish shift in Federal Reserve communication or policy could lead to a bond market sell-off, with potential price declines of 5-8%.

🏢 Fund Overview

What Are You Actually Buying

  • This ETF primarily invests in long-term U.S. Treasury securities, which are debt instruments issued by the U.S. government with remaining maturities of 20 years or more. These bonds are considered among the safest investments globally due to the backing of the U.S. government, implying minimal credit risk.
  • Long-duration Treasury bonds are highly sensitive to changes in interest rates. When interest rates rise, bond prices generally fall, and vice versa. This makes them a key tool for investors seeking to express a view on the future direction of interest rates and inflation.
  • In a diversified portfolio, long-term Treasuries often serve as a diversifier against equity market volatility due to their typically inverse correlation with stocks, particularly during periods of economic stress. They also provide a steady stream of income through coupon payments.

Market Dynamics & Outlook

  • The long-term Treasury market is currently influenced by Federal Reserve policy, inflation expectations, and government debt issuance.
  • Anticipation of potential Fed rate cuts in late 2026 or 2027 could support bond prices, but persistent inflation could delay such actions.
  • High government deficits and increased Treasury supply may put upward pressure on yields, creating a challenging environment for long bonds.
  • Global economic uncertainty and geopolitical events could drive safe-haven demand, providing a floor for long-term Treasury prices.

🎯 Why This Matters

Understanding the dynamics of the long-term Treasury market is crucial for investors using this ETF, as its performance is directly tied to interest rate movements and investor sentiment towards U.S. government debt. The balance between potential income and interest rate sensitivity defines its risk-reward profile in a portfolio.

📈 Valuation & Analysis

Historical Performance

YTD
+0.63%
1Y
+3.92%
Yearly Growth (3Y)
-0.38%
Yearly Growth (5Y)
-8.37%
Yearly Growth (10Y)
-0.55%
Yearly Growth (Since Inception)
+3.72%

Current Valuation

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF currently offers a 12-month trailing yield of 4.40% and a 30-day SEC yield of 4.77%, with an average yield to maturity of 4.89% (as of January 27, 2026). These yields are near multi-year highs, making the income component attractive to investors. The effective duration of the fund is 15.45 years, indicating significant sensitivity to interest rate changes. Historically, yields have been much lower, suggesting that current valuations reflect a bond market that has undergone substantial repricing due to higher inflation and tighter monetary policy.

The Bull Case - Upside to

Disinflation and Fed Rate Cuts

Medium Probability

If inflation continues to recede faster than expected, prompting the Federal Reserve to implement more aggressive rate cuts (e.g., 100 basis points in 2026), TLT's high duration could lead to price appreciation of approximately 15%, pushing its NAV to US$101.00.

Increased Safe-Haven Demand

Medium Probability

A significant economic slowdown or escalating geopolitical tensions could trigger a 'flight to safety' into U.S. Treasuries. This increased demand could drive bond prices up by 5-10%, reflecting their role as a risk-off asset.

Positive Supply/Demand Dynamics

Low Probability

Any unexpected reduction in Treasury issuance or increased demand from large institutional buyers could create a supply-demand imbalance, leading to higher bond prices and potentially a 3-5% uplift for TLT's NAV.

The Bear Case - Downside to

Persistent Inflation and Higher-for-Longer Rates

Medium Probability

Should inflation prove more sticky, forcing the Fed to maintain higher interest rates for longer or even hike further (e.g., a 75 basis point increase), TLT's price could decline by 11.5% to US$77.50 due to its long duration.

Increased Treasury Supply

Medium Probability

Higher-than-anticipated government borrowing to fund fiscal deficits could flood the market with new Treasury bonds. This increased supply could depress bond prices and yields, resulting in a 5-8% price drop for TLT.

Economic Resilience

Low Probability

A surprisingly robust U.S. economy could temper expectations for rate cuts, leading to a reassessment of bond valuations. This scenario could see TLT prices decline by 3-6% as investors shift towards riskier assets.

Risk/Reward Assessment

The risk-reward assessment for the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF is heavily skewed by its high duration and sensitivity to interest rate policy. While the potential for Federal Reserve rate cuts in a disinflationary environment presents a compelling bull case with a projected NAV of US$101.00 (+15.3%), the risks are equally significant. Persistent inflation or higher-than-expected government borrowing could lead to a bear case NAV of US$77.50 (-11.5%). The market is currently grappling with these opposing forces, making TLT a high-conviction bet on the direction of long-term interest rates. For investors seeking duration exposure and believing in a disinflationary future, the current yield offers compensation, but the potential for significant capital depreciation remains a key consideration.

Peer Comparison

• TLT offers a highly liquid and widely recognized vehicle for long-term Treasury exposure, making it a benchmark for the asset class. • Its expense ratio of 0.15% is competitive within the long-duration Treasury ETF category, though slightly higher than some peers like VGLT (0.03%) and SPTL (0.03%). • With US$45.56 billion in AUM, TLT commands significant scale, ensuring excellent liquidity and minimal bid-ask spreads for efficient trading. • The fund's performance tends to align closely with the ICE US Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index, making it a reliable tracking vehicle, though some peers may offer slightly different duration profiles.
FundExpense RatioAUM (B)1Y Return3Y Return5Y ReturnYield
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) ⭐0.15%US$45.6B3.92%-0.38%-8.37%0.04%
Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Index Fund ETF (VGLT)0.03%US$10.2BN/AN/AN/AN/A
SPDR Portfolio Long Term Treasury ETF (SPTL)0.03%US$10.8BN/AN/AN/AN/A
Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury Index Fund ETF (EDV)0.05%US$4.0BN/AN/AN/AN/A

🎯 Why This Matters

The valuation and peer comparison highlight TLT's role as a primary instrument for long-duration U.S. Treasury exposure, offering liquidity and a solid tracking record. For investors, the decision hinges on conviction regarding future interest rate movements and the desire for portfolio diversification through high-quality government bonds.

📱 Social Sentiment

40%
Bullish
Bullish: 40%
Neutral: 35%
Bearish: 25%
Trend: Stable

What's Driving Sentiment

NEUTRAL

Social sentiment surrounding TLT is currently neutral, reflecting the ongoing debate about the future direction of interest rates and inflation. While some voices express bullish views on the potential for Federal Reserve rate cuts and a flight to safety, others remain cautious, citing concerns about persistent inflation and increased Treasury supply. Discussions across platforms indicate a balanced perspective, with investors weighing the attractive current yield against potential capital depreciation if rates continue to rise. There isn't a strong consensus in either direction, leading to a stable but watchful sentiment trend.

📊 Analyst & Expert Themes

CAUTIOUS BULLISH
•

Analysts emphasize the compelling carry provided by current yields, making long bonds attractive for income.

•

Expert commentary highlights the potential for significant capital appreciation if the Federal Reserve eases monetary policy.

•

Research notes the critical role of long-duration Treasuries as a portfolio hedge against equity market downturns.

•

Key voices caution that the path of inflation and future Fed actions remain highly uncertain, warranting careful positioning.

Platform Breakdown

Seeking Alpha30% weight
45%
35%
20%
Bullish: 45%Neutral: 35%Bearish: 20%
Key Themes
  • • Analysis of yield curve dynamics and inversion risks
  • • Comparative valuation against other fixed-income assets
  • • Impact of Federal Reserve policy on long-duration bonds
X (Twitter/FinTwit)25% weight
38%
37%
25%
Bullish: 38%Neutral: 37%Bearish: 25%
Key Themes
  • • Macroeconomic outlook and its effect on bond prices
  • • Discussions on technical levels for TLT
  • • Anticipation of key economic data releases (CPI, PCE)
Reddit20% weight
42%
33%
25%
Bullish: 42%Neutral: 33%Bearish: 25%
Key Themes
  • • Portfolio diversification benefits of long bonds
  • • Debate on whether bonds are a 'safe' asset in current environment
  • • Discussions on interest rate sensitivity and duration risk
Reddit discussions can sometimes be influenced by short-term trading narratives, potentially overstating immediate price action.
MooMoo15% weight
35%
40%
25%
Bullish: 35%Neutral: 40%Bearish: 25%
Key Themes
  • • Technical analysis indicators for TLT price movements
  • • Comparison of TLT with other income-generating ETFs
  • • Short-term trading strategies based on yield fluctuations
LinkedIn10% weight
40%
45%
Bullish: 40%Neutral: 45%Bearish: 15%
Key Themes
  • • Institutional allocation strategies for fixed income
  • • Risk management considerations for duration exposure
  • • Long-term implications of fiscal policy on Treasury markets
LinkedIn commentary tends to be more focused on long-term portfolio strategy and less on daily price movements.

Positive Catalysts

  • • Definitive signals from the Federal Reserve for multiple rate cuts
  • • Significant downturn in economic growth leading to safe-haven demand
  • • Stronger-than-expected disinflationary trends.

Negative Catalysts

  • • Reacceleration of inflation forcing the Fed to hike rates further
  • • Persistent strength in economic data delaying rate cuts
  • • Dramatic increase in U.S. government debt issuance.

⚠️ Important Notices

Flow Reversal: TLT has experienced significant net outflows over the past month (-US$2.09B), quarter (-US$4.42B), and year (-US$5.76B), indicating a reversal in investor sentiment or allocation away from long-duration Treasuries.

📊 Appendix

Top 10 Holdings (80+ of ETF Value)

#TickerLogoNameSectorWeight
1N/A
U
United States Treasury Bond 2.0% 15-AUG-2051Government0.1%
2N/A
U
United States Treasury Bond 1.875% 15-NOV-2051Government0.0%
3N/A
U
United States Treasury Bond 4.125% 15-AUG-2053Government0.0%
4N/A
U
United States Treasury Bond 4.75% 15-NOV-2053Government0.0%
5N/A
U
United States Treasury Bond 4.75% 15-MAY-2055Government0.0%
6N/A
U
United States Treasury Bond 4.625% 15-MAY-2054Government0.0%
7N/A
U
United States Treasury Bond 4.25% 15-AUG-2054Government0.0%
8N/A
U
United States Treasury Bond 1.875% 15-FEB-2051Government0.0%
9N/A
U
United States Treasury Bond 4.25% 15-FEB-2054Government0.0%
10N/A
U
United States Treasury Bond 3.625% 15-MAY-2053Government0.0%

Fund Mechanics

How It Works

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) aims to track the investment results of the ICE US Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index. This index is composed of publicly-issued U.S. Treasury securities that have a remaining maturity greater than or equal to twenty years and meet certain liquidity criteria. The fund employs a representative sampling strategy, meaning it invests in a sample of securities that collectively have an investment profile similar to the underlying index. As a passively managed ETF, TLT's investment objective is to replicate the performance of its benchmark index, rather than actively selecting securities. The index itself is market value weighted, where each security's proportion in the index is determined by its outstanding market value. The securities in the index are updated on the last calendar day of each month. This methodology ensures broad exposure to the long-duration segment of the U.S. Treasury market.

Holdings Breakdown

Number of Holdings
45
Top 10 Concentration
4389.0%
CategoryWeightDescription
Government99.8%U.S. Treasury securities with maturities greater than or equal to 20 years.
Cash & Equivalents0.2%Short-term liquid assets.

Cost Efficiency

Expense Ratio
0.15%
Median Bid-Ask Spread
0.010%
Expense Ratio History
YearExpense Ratio
20250.15%
20240.16%
20230.16%

Performance History

YearETF ReturnBenchmark ReturnTracking DiffVolatilityMax DrawdownSharpe Ratio
20254.25%4.29%-0.04%N/AN/AN/A
2024-8.06%-7.71%-0.35%N/AN/AN/A
20232.77%2.15%0.62%N/AN/AN/A
2022-31.25%-30.76%-0.49%N/AN/AN/A
Annualized Return Since Inception
3.72%

Detailed Peer Comparison

TickerNameIssuerExp RatioAUM (B)1Y3Y5YYieldStdDev 3YSharpe 3YSpread
TLT ⭐iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFiShares0.15%US$45.6B3.9%-0.4%-8.4%0.04%0.15%N/A0.010%
VGLTVanguard Long-Term Treasury Index Fund ETFVanguard0.03%US$10.2BN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
SPTLSPDR Portfolio Long Term Treasury ETFState Street0.03%US$10.8BN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
EDVVanguard Extended Duration Treasury Index Fund ETFVanguard0.05%US$4.0BN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Category Average0.16%—N/AN/AN/AN/A—N/A—

Risk Metrics

Beta
0.83

Standard Deviation

1 Year3 Years5 Years10 Years
N/A0.15%N/AN/A

Sharpe Ratio

1Y3Y5Y10Y
N/AN/AN/AN/A

Sortino Ratio

3 Years5 Years
N/AN/A

Maximum Drawdown

1 Year3 Years5 YearsSince Inception
N/A-0.20%N/AN/A
Upside Capture
17500.0%
Downside Capture
30600.0%

Correlations

S&P 500
-0.26

Liquidity & Trading

Volume

Avg Daily Shares
39,312,762
Avg Daily Dollar Volume
US$3445.4M
Trend
stable

Bid-Ask Spread

MetricValue
Median (Percent)0.010%
Median (Dollar)US$0.01
During HoursN/A
At CloseN/A
Volatilitylow

Premium/Discount to NAV

MetricValue
Current-0.02%
30-Day Average0.05%
1-Year AverageN/A
Standard DeviationN/A
Max Premium (1Y)N/A
Max Discount (1Y)N/A

Creation/Redemption Activity

Trend
decreasing
Net Flows
PeriodNet Flow
1 MonthUS$-0.0M
1 QuarterUS$-0.0M
1 YearUS$-0.0M

⚠️ Disclaimer: This ETF research report is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell securities. EC² Invest is not a registered investment advisor. All data is sourced from public sources and may contain errors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. ETF investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.