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Technology | Semiconductors
📊 THE BOTTOM LINE
TSM is the world's largest pure-play semiconductor foundry, holding a dominant market share. Its advanced process technologies and robust customer base underpin a strong business model, though it faces geopolitical and intense capital expenditure demands. The business quality is high, driven by its indispensable role in the global tech supply chain.
⚖️ RISK VS REWARD
At a current price of US$294.72, against an analyst average target of US$341.91, the stock presents a favorable risk/reward profile. The 'buy' recommendation from analysts suggests potential upside, balanced against geopolitical uncertainties and the company's significant capital intensity required to maintain its technological lead.
🚀 WHY TSM COULD SOAR
⚠️ WHAT COULD GO WRONG
High Performance Computing (HPC)
42%
Chips for data centers, AI, and graphics processing.
Smartphone
39%
Chips for mobile devices, including flagship smartphones.
IoT
9%
Chips for internet-connected devices and smart applications.
Automotive
5%
Semiconductors for vehicle electronics and autonomous systems.
Digital Consumer Electronics
5%
Chips for various consumer electronic devices.
🎯 WHY THIS MATTERS
TSMC's business model as a pure-play foundry is crucial for the global technology ecosystem, enabling fabless companies to innovate and bring designs to market. Its diverse end-market exposure provides resilience against fluctuations in any single sector, although it remains highly dependent on leading-edge technology adoption.
TSMC consistently leads in developing and mass-producing the most advanced process nodes, such as 3nm and beyond. This cutting-edge capability attracts top-tier customers, including industry giants like Apple and Nvidia, who require the highest performance and power efficiency for their products. The immense R&D investment and complex intellectual property create a substantial barrier to entry, making it exceptionally difficult for competitors to replicate TSMC's advanced manufacturing prowess. This leadership ensures premium pricing power and a consistent flow of high-value orders.
As the world's largest dedicated chip foundry, TSMC benefits from unparalleled economies of scale across its global operations. This scale translates into significant cost advantages in raw material procurement, equipment investment, and efficient fab utilization. Its sophisticated operational excellence and rigorous quality control result in high yields, further enhancing profitability. This massive manufacturing footprint allows TSMC to handle vast volumes of orders, ensuring reliable supply for its diverse customer base and maintaining its market dominance.
TSMC's unique pure-play foundry model means it does not design or sell its own chips, avoiding direct competition with its customers. This neutrality fosters deep trust and allows fabless semiconductor companies to confidently rely on TSMC for their manufacturing needs without concerns about intellectual property theft or competitive conflicts. This strategic positioning makes TSMC the preferred and often indispensable manufacturing partner for a vast array of semiconductor innovators, strengthening long-term client relationships and securing a robust order pipeline.
🎯 WHY THIS MATTERS
These distinct advantages collectively establish TSMC as an indispensable partner in the semiconductor industry, ensuring its pivotal role in enabling technological innovation. Its strong market position, continuous investment in advanced technology, and customer-centric business model provide a robust moat against competition, underpinning long-term profitability and market leadership.
C. C. Wei
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
C. C. Wei joined TSMC in 1998, becoming CEO in 2018 and Chairman in June 2024. Previously Co-CEO, COO, and head of R&D. His deep technical and operational expertise is crucial for navigating the complex semiconductor landscape and maintaining the company's technological edge.
The semiconductor foundry market is highly concentrated, with TSMC dominating due to its technological leadership and manufacturing scale. Key competitors include integrated device manufacturers (IDMs) like Samsung Foundry and Intel Foundry Services, which also design their own chips. Smaller pure-play foundries like GlobalFoundries compete in less advanced, specialized process nodes. Competition primarily revolves around securing advanced process technology leadership, manufacturing capacity, and pricing strategies to attract top-tier fabless customers.
📊 Market Context
Competitor
Description
vs TSM
Samsung Foundry
Samsung's dedicated foundry division, part of the larger Samsung Electronics conglomerate, offers advanced process technologies and competes directly with TSMC for leading-edge clients.
Direct competitor in leading-edge process nodes; however, as an IDM, it also designs its own chips, which can create perceived conflicts of interest for fabless customers. Holds a significant, though smaller, market share.
Intel Foundry Services (IFS)
Intel's emerging foundry business aims to reclaim process technology leadership and serve external customers, leveraging Intel's long history in chip manufacturing.
An ambitious new entrant aggressively investing in advanced process development and capacity, seeking to challenge TSMC's dominance, particularly in future leading-edge nodes. Benefits from Intel's extensive IP and resources.
GlobalFoundries
A pure-play foundry focusing on mature and specialized process technologies, serving a diverse range of industries including automotive, IoT, and communications infrastructure.
Competes in less advanced, but critical, technology nodes, often avoiding the high capital intensity of leading-edge development. Differentiates by focusing on specialized solutions for specific market segments.
TSMC
61%
Samsung Foundry
13%
GlobalFoundries
6%
Others
20%
1
10
5
Low Target
US$210
-29%
Average Target
US$342
+16%
High Target
US$450
+53%
Current: US$294.72
High Probability
TSMC's leadership in advanced process technologies (3nm, 2nm) positions it to capture the majority of the rapidly expanding AI and high-performance computing (HPC) chip market. This could drive higher average selling prices and robust volume growth, potentially increasing revenue by 15-20% annually over the next few years.
Medium Probability
Ongoing investments in new fabs globally (e.g., US, Japan, Germany) diversify geopolitical risk and secure supply chains for international customers. This expansion ensures continued access to critical markets and strengthens customer relationships, mitigating supply concentration concerns and enhancing long-term resilience.
High Probability
TSMC's long-standing partnerships with leading fabless designers like Apple, Nvidia, and AMD create a virtuous cycle of co-innovation. As these customers develop next-generation chips, they rely on TSMC's advanced capabilities, further entrenching its position and driving continuous technology advancements and demand.
Medium Probability
Escalating US-China trade tensions or increased cross-strait instability could disrupt TSMC's operations, supply chains, or access to critical markets and technology. This might lead to export controls or forced localization, potentially impacting revenue by 10-15% and increasing operational costs significantly.
High Probability
Maintaining leadership in advanced nodes requires massive, continuous capital expenditures. Aggressive investments by competitors like Intel Foundry Services could lead to pricing pressure, oversupply, or slower adoption of TSMC's newest technologies, squeezing margins and return on invested capital.
Medium Probability
The semiconductor industry is cyclical. A significant global economic slowdown could lead to reduced demand for consumer electronics, smartphones, and even enterprise spending on servers, directly impacting TSMC's wafer orders and potentially causing a 5-10% revenue decline.
Owning TSMC for a decade means betting on its enduring technological superiority and critical role in the global tech supply chain. Its relentless pursuit of advanced process nodes and strategic customer partnerships suggest long-term durability, especially with the secular growth in AI. However, geopolitical risks and the immense capital demands for next-gen fabs are persistent concerns. Investors must be comfortable with these macroeconomic and operational complexities, expecting steady, but perhaps not explosive, growth driven by fundamental innovation.
Metric
FY 2022
FY 2023
FY 2024
FY 2024
FY 2025 (Est)
FY 2026 (Est)
Income Statement
Revenue
US$2263.89B
US$2161.74B
US$2894.31B
US$92.41B
US$119.81B
US$137.78B
Gross Profit
US$1348.35B
US$1175.11B
US$1624.35B
US$51.87B
US$70.82B
US$81.44B
Operating Income
US$1121.23B
US$921.43B
US$1322.00B
US$42.19B
US$59.74B
US$71.69B
Net Income
US$992.92B
US$851.74B
US$1158.38B
US$36.98B
US$53.14B
US$63.77B
EPS (Diluted)
196.00
161.70
226.25
7.22
10.15
12.18
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents
US$1342.81B
US$1465.43B
US$2127.63B
US$67.91B
US$78.86B
US$86.75B
Total Assets
US$4964.46B
US$5532.20B
US$6691.76B
US$213.60B
US$234.71B
US$258.18B
Total Debt
US$888.17B
US$956.26B
US$1047.04B
US$33.42B
US$30.30B
US$30.30B
Shareholders' Equity
US$2903.02B
US$3429.52B
US$4244.27B
US$135.44B
US$159.55B
US$170.18B
Key Ratios
Gross Margin
59.6%
54.4%
56.1%
56.1%
59.1%
59.1%
Operating Margin
49.5%
42.6%
45.7%
45.7%
49.9%
49.9%
Return on Equity
34.20
24.84
27.29
34.66
33.31
37.47
| Metric | Value | Description |
|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio (TTM) | 30.48 | The trailing twelve-month Price-to-Earnings ratio measures the current share price relative to the company's earnings per share over the past year, indicating how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of earnings. |
| Forward P/E | 36.48 | The Forward Price-to-Earnings ratio measures the current share price relative to the estimated future earnings per share, providing an indication of expected valuation based on future profitability. |
| PEG Ratio | N/A | The Price/Earnings to Growth (PEG) ratio measures a stock's valuation by taking into account its earnings growth rate, offering a more complete picture than the P/E ratio alone. |
| Price/Sales (TTM) | 0.42 | The trailing twelve-month Price-to-Sales ratio compares the company's market capitalization to its total revenue over the past year, indicating how much investors are paying for each dollar of sales. |
| Price/Book (MRQ) | 1.52 | The Price-to-Book ratio measures how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of book value (assets minus liabilities), reflecting the company's valuation relative to its net assets. |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.32 | The Enterprise Value to Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (EV/EBITDA) ratio evaluates a company's total value relative to its operating profitability, often used for cross-company comparisons. |
| Return on Equity (TTM) | 34.66 | The trailing twelve-month Return on Equity (ROE) measures the net income returned as a percentage of shareholders' equity, indicating the company's efficiency in generating profits from shareholder investments. |
| Operating Margin | 50.58 | Operating Margin measures the percentage of revenue remaining after paying for operating expenses, reflecting the company's profitability from its core operations. |
| Company | Market Cap (B) | P/E Ratio | P/B Ratio | Revenue Growth (%) | Operating Margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (Target) | 1528.57 | 30.48 | 1.52 | 30.3% | 50.6% |
| Samsung Electronics | 380.00 | 14.00 | 1.20 | 10.0% | 12.0% |
| Intel Corp | 175.58 | 25.00 | 1.65 | -14.0% | -2.8% |
| GlobalFoundries | 21.64 | N/A | 1.80 | 8.0% | 11.4% |
| Sector Average | — | 20.67 | 1.55 | 1.3% | 6.9% |