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Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares

VTI:NYSE

equity ETF | passive | Vanguard | Tracks CRSP US Total Market Index

Market Price

US$340.87 (22 Jan 2026)

+13.15% (YoY)

NAV

US$335.03

+1.74% Premium

Yield

1.12%

+2.24% (YoY)

Expense Ratio

3.00%

+20% vs Avg: 15.00%

Box Set (ETF)

⚡ Executive Summary

📊 The Bottom Line

This ETF tracks the CRSP US Total Market Index, offering comprehensive exposure to the entire investable U.S. stock market, including large-, mid-, small-, and micro-cap stocks. With a remarkably low expense ratio and tight tracking, VTI is a highly efficient vehicle for broad market diversification. The bull case anticipates NAV reaching US$409 (+20%) while the bear case suggests US$273 (-20%) over the next 12-18 months.

⚖️ Risk vs Reward

The underlying holdings of VTI, representing the total U.S. stock market, currently trade at an aggregate P/E of 27.4x, slightly above historical averages, reflecting recent market optimism. While U.S. equities have shown robust performance, the current valuation implies a fair-to-rich pricing environment. The risk-reward profile is balanced, with potential upside driven by sustained earnings growth and innovation, offset by the possibility of valuation compression or economic slowdown. As a passively managed fund, VTI's primary risks stem from market-wide downturns rather than idiosyncratic stock risks, making its overall risk profile tied directly to the health of the broader U.S. economy.

🚀 Why VTI Could Soar

• Sustained corporate earnings growth across large- and mid-cap segments, exceeding current expectations, could drive broad market appreciation.
• Continued innovation in key sectors like technology and healthcare could fuel growth, lifting the market-cap-weighted index higher.
• Increased investor inflows into passive, low-cost total market funds would provide a consistent tailwind for VTI's asset base and trading liquidity.

⚠️ What Could Go Wrong

• Economic recession or prolonged slowdown could lead to significant earnings contractions across U.S. companies, impacting stock prices.
• Persistent inflation and higher interest rates could compress valuation multiples, making current stock prices appear expensive.
• Geopolitical instability or unforeseen global events could trigger broad market risk aversion, leading to a flight to safety.

🏢 Fund Overview

What Are You Actually Buying

The U.S. total stock market encompasses virtually all publicly traded domestic companies, from the largest mega-caps to the smallest micro-caps, covering all sectors and industries.
This market segment is highly diversified, representing the breadth and depth of the American economy, offering exposure to diverse growth drivers and business cycles.
Investments in the total stock market generally reflect the overall health and growth trajectory of the U.S. economy, providing exposure to both established leaders and emerging innovators.

Market Dynamics & Outlook

The U.S. equity market recently experienced strong performance driven by robust corporate earnings, easing inflation, and anticipation of potential interest rate cuts.
Technology and growth-oriented sectors have led market gains, creating some concentration in mega-cap companies within broad indices.
Near-term outlook includes continued focus on inflation trends, Federal Reserve policy, and potential shifts in consumer and corporate spending patterns, with ongoing debates about the sustainability of current valuations.

🎯 Why This Matters

Understanding the dynamics of the total U.S. stock market is crucial because it forms the bedrock of many investment portfolios. Exposure through VTI offers unparalleled diversification, mitigating single-stock risk and providing a long-term growth engine that mirrors the overall performance of the American economy.

📈 Valuation & Analysis

Historical Performance

YTD

+1.67%

+17.10%

Yearly Growth (3Y)

+22.25%

Yearly Growth (5Y)

+13.06%

Yearly Growth (10Y)

+14.25%

Yearly Growth (Since Inception)

+9.21%

Current Valuation

VTI's underlying holdings, comprising the entire U.S. equity market, trade at an aggregate price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 27.4x and a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 4.6x as of December 31, 2025. This valuation is slightly above the long-term historical averages for the U.S. market, indicating a period of moderate optimism. The dividend yield stands at 1.11% (30-day SEC yield). While these metrics suggest that the market is not significantly undervalued, they are also not at extreme historical highs, implying a fair-to-rich valuation. Future returns are likely to be driven more by sustained earnings growth rather than significant multiple expansion from current levels.

The Bull Case - Upside to

Robust U.S. Economic Growth

Medium Probability

If the U.S. economy grows at a faster-than-expected rate of 2.5% in 2026 (vs. consensus 1.8%), corporate earnings could see a 10-15% uplift, translating to a potential 15% upside for VTI's NAV.

Technology Sector Outperformance Continues

Medium Probability

Should the technology sector, heavily weighted in VTI, sustain its innovation and earnings growth, driving another 20%+ return, this could add 5-7% to VTI's overall performance, pushing NAV higher by 10%.

Lower-for-Longer Interest Rates

Low Probability

If the Federal Reserve cuts rates more aggressively than anticipated, signaling a looser monetary policy, this could lead to multiple expansion across equities, potentially adding 8-10% to VTI's NAV. Assuming a 20% upside scenario, VTI's NAV could reach US$409.05.

The Bear Case - Downside to

Unexpected Economic Downturn

Medium Probability

A deeper-than-expected recession, with a 15-20% contraction in corporate earnings, combined with P/E compression, could lead to a 20-25% decline in VTI's NAV.

Inflationary Pressures Persist

Medium Probability

If inflation remains stubbornly high, forcing the Fed to maintain restrictive policies, it could lead to further valuation compression across growth stocks, potentially reducing VTI's NAV by 10-15%.

Geopolitical Tensions Escalate

Medium Probability

A significant escalation of global geopolitical conflicts could trigger widespread risk aversion, leading to a flight from equities and a broad market sell-off, impacting VTI's NAV by 15-20%. Assuming a 20% downside scenario, VTI's NAV could drop to US$272.70.

Risk/Reward Assessment

The risk-reward assessment for VTI reflects its nature as a broad market index fund, where potential upside is tied to the overall growth of the U.S. economy and corporate earnings, while downside risks are primarily systemic. The current valuation, while not excessively stretched, does not offer a deep discount, suggesting that significant multiple expansion is less likely to be a primary driver of returns. Investors should expect returns to largely mirror economic performance. The bull case hinges on a combination of stronger economic growth and continued innovation, particularly within dominant sectors. The bear case highlights the vulnerabilities of a highly diversified portfolio to broad economic contractions or persistent macroeconomic headwinds. Given VTI's comprehensive exposure, its risk-reward profile is generally considered balanced for long-term investors seeking market-like returns, with specific outcomes dependent on the trajectory of the U.S. economy.

Peer Comparison

Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) stands out among its peers for its unparalleled broad market coverage and extremely competitive expense ratio. It provides exposure to a wider range of U.S. companies (over 3,500) compared to S&P 500-focused ETFs, which typically hold 500 companies. This broader diversification can offer slightly different risk/return characteristics. Its 0.03% expense ratio is tied with other low-cost leaders, making it highly attractive for cost-conscious, long-term investors. While performance can sometimes slightly trail large-cap concentrated funds in bull markets driven by a few mega-caps, VTI captures the entire market's potential over a full cycle.

Fund	Expense Ratio	AUM (B)	1Y Return	3Y Return	5Y Return	Yield
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO)	3.00%	US$1470.0B	13.68%	19.98%	12.26%	1.12%
iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market ETF (ITOT)	3.00%	US$54.3B	17.54%	11.51%	14.54%	1.42%
Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF (SCHB)	3.00%	US$64.8B	17.75%	11.60%	14.65%	1.34%
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares (VTI) ⭐	3.00%	US$570.9B	17.10%	22.25%	13.06%	1.11%

🎯 Why This Matters

The detailed valuation and peer comparison reveal that VTI offers efficient, broad market exposure at an exceptionally low cost, making it a cornerstone for diversified U.S. equity portfolios. Its comprehensive nature means investors capture the full spectrum of market performance, making it a robust long-term holding rather than a tactical play.

📊 Appendix

Top 10 Holdings (80+ of ETF Value)

#	Ticker	Logo	Name	Sector	Weight
1	NVDA	N	NVIDIA Corporation	Technology	6.6%
2	AAPL	A	Apple Inc.	Technology	6.1%
3	MSFT	M	Microsoft Corporation	Technology	5.5%
4	AMZN	A	Amazon.com Inc.	Consumer Cyclical	3.4%
5	GOOGL	A	Alphabet Inc. Class A	Communication Services	2.8%
6	AVGO	B	Broadcom Inc.	Technology	2.5%
7	GOOG	A	Alphabet Inc. Class C	Communication Services	2.2%
8	META	M	Meta Platforms Inc.	Communication Services	2.2%
9	TSLA	T	Tesla Inc.	Consumer Cyclical	1.9%
10	LLY	E	Eli Lilly and Company	Healthcare	1.4%

Fund Mechanics

How It Works

The Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares (VTI) employs an indexing investment approach, meticulously designed to track the performance of the CRSP US Total Market Index. This index is a comprehensive benchmark that represents approximately 100% of the investable U.S. stock market. It includes a vast array of stocks across all market capitalizations—large-cap, mid-cap, small-cap, and micro-cap—that are regularly traded on major U.S. exchanges. The fund utilizes a passively managed, index-sampling strategy, meaning it doesn't hold every single security in the index. Instead, it holds a broadly diversified collection of securities that, in aggregate, aims to approximate the full index in terms of key characteristics such as industry weightings, market capitalization profile, and other risk factors. This sampling approach allows the fund to minimize transaction costs and enhance tracking efficiency. The fund remains fully invested, aiming to replicate the index's performance without active security selection or market timing.

Holdings Breakdown

Number of Holdings

3512

Top 10 Concentration

3450.0%

Top 20 Concentration

4685.0%

Turnover Rate

210%

Category	Weight	Description
Technology	33.2%
Financial Services	13.3%
Consumer Cyclical	10.5%
Healthcare	10.3%
Communication Services	10.1%
Industrials	8.8%
Consumer Defensive	4.5%
Energy	2.9%
Real Estate	2.3%
Utilities	2.2%
Basic Materials	1.9%

Cost Efficiency

Expense Ratio

3.00%

Median Bid-Ask Spread

0.000%

Performance History

Year	ETF Return	Benchmark Return	Tracking Diff	Volatility	Max Drawdown	Sharpe Ratio
2025	17.10%	17.15%	-0.05%	N/A	N/A	N/A
2024	23.71%	23.77%	-0.06%	N/A	N/A	N/A
2023	26.11%	25.98%	0.13%	N/A	N/A	N/A
2022	-19.51%	-19.49%	-0.02%	N/A	N/A	N/A
2021	25.64%	25.72%	-0.08%	N/A	N/A	N/A

Annualized Return Since Inception

9.21%

Detailed Peer Comparison

Ticker	Name	Issuer	Exp Ratio	AUM (B)	1Y	3Y	5Y	Yield	StdDev 3Y	Sharpe 3Y	Spread
VTI ⭐	Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares	Vanguard	3.00%	US$570.9B	17.1%	22.3%	13.1%	1.11%	N/A	N/A	0.000%
VOO	Vanguard S&P 500 ETF	Vanguard	3.00%	US$1470.0B	13.7%	20.0%	12.3%	1.12%	N/A	N/A	1.000%
ITOT	iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market ETF	BlackRock iShares	3.00%	US$54.3B	17.5%	11.5%	14.5%	1.42%	N/A	N/A	1.000%
SCHB	Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF	Charles Schwab	3.00%	US$64.8B	17.8%	11.6%	14.7%	1.34%	N/A	N/A	1.000%
Category Average			3.00%	—	16.5%	16.3%	13.6%	1.25%	—	N/A	—

Risk Metrics

Beta

1.03

R-Squared

1.00

Standard Deviation

1 Year	3 Years	5 Years	10 Years
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Sharpe Ratio

1Y	3Y	5Y	10Y
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Sortino Ratio

3 Years	5 Years
N/A	N/A

Maximum Drawdown

1 Year	3 Years	5 Years	Since Inception
N/A	N/A	N/A	50.84%

Upside Capture

7323.0%

Downside Capture

8427.0%

Correlations

Liquidity & Trading

Volume

Avg Daily Shares

8,280,000

Avg Daily Dollar Volume

US$2822.5M

Trend

stable

Bid-Ask Spread

Metric	Value
Median (Percent)	0.000%
Median (Dollar)	US$0.00
During Hours	N/A
At Close	N/A
Volatility	low

Premium/Discount to NAV

Metric	Value
Current	-2.00%
30-Day Average	N/A
1-Year Average	N/A
Standard Deviation	N/A
Max Premium (1Y)	N/A
Max Discount (1Y)	N/A

Creation/Redemption Activity

Trend

Not explicitly tracked in provided data, but consistent liquidity implies active creation/redemption.

Net Flows

Period	Net Flow

⚠️ Disclaimer: This ETF research report is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell securities. EC² Invest is not a registered investment advisor. All data is sourced from public sources and may contain errors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. ETF investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.