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equity ETF | passive | Vanguard | Tracks FTSE
📊 The Bottom Line
This ETF tracks the FTSE High Dividend Yield Index, offering exposure to U.S. companies with consistently higher-than-average dividend yields. It's a low-cost, diversified option for income-focused investors. Our bull case projects the NAV reaching US$170.67 (+15%) while the bear case suggests US$133.57 (-10%) over 12-18 months.
⚖️ Risk vs Reward
The underlying holdings of VYM currently trade at a P/E ratio of 20.69x, which is above the high dividend yield ETF category average of 11.29x, indicating a potential premium for dividend quality and stability. While the sector composition, with a significant tilt towards financials and healthcare, offers defensive characteristics, it may lag during aggressive growth-led market rallies. The 3-year beta of 0.74 suggests lower volatility than the broader market, balancing the risk-reward profile, yet concentration in top holdings presents a risk if specific sectors face headwinds.
🚀 Why VYM Could Soar
⚠️ What Could Go Wrong
🎯 Why This Matters
Understanding VYM's focus on high-dividend U.S. equities is critical, as its performance profile differs from broader market indices. It offers a defensive tilt with consistent income but may experience less upside during periods of strong growth-stock outperformance. This makes it a strategic choice for specific portfolio roles, particularly for income generation and stability.
Consistent earnings growth among VYM's high-quality holdings could translate into increased dividend payouts, potentially boosting total returns by an additional 1-2% annually and attracting income-seeking investors.
Should market volatility increase or a broader economic slowdown emerge, VYM's focus on stable, dividend-paying companies could lead to relative outperformance, drawing capital flows and supporting a 5-10% premium to broader market indices.
If value stocks, particularly those with strong dividend profiles, experience a re-rating to higher P/E multiples relative to growth stocks, VYM could see its NAV appreciate by 8-12% beyond earnings growth, aligning its valuation closer to historical averages during value cycles.
Further significant increases in interest rates by the Federal Reserve could make bonds more attractive, reducing the relative appeal of dividend stocks and potentially causing a 5-8% contraction in VYM's valuation multiples.
A severe economic recession might force many of VYM's underlying companies to cut or suspend dividends, directly reducing the fund's income stream and leading to a 10-15% decline in NAV due to investor sentiment and lower payouts.
Given VYM's concentration in sectors like financials (21.89%), adverse regulatory changes, increased competition, or prolonged economic weakness within these sectors could disproportionately impact the fund's performance, leading to a 7-10% underperformance relative to diversified benchmarks.
| Fund | Expense Ratio | AUM (B) | 1Y Return | 3Y Return | 5Y Return | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (VYM) ⭐ | 6.00% | US$84.6B | 15.43% | 13.09% | 12.68% | 2.44% |
| Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD) | 6.00% | US$76.1B | 17.00% | N/A | N/A | 4.04% |
| Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) | 3.00% | US$400.0B | 20.00% | N/A | N/A | 1.40% |
| Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) | 4.00% | US$100.0B | 14.50% | N/A | N/A | 2.60% |
🎯 Why This Matters
The valuation and peer analysis highlight VYM's role as a cost-effective, diversified vehicle for U.S. high-dividend exposure. Investors should consider its defensive characteristics and income focus in relation to their overall portfolio objectives, recognizing its potential for stability but also its sensitivity to interest rate environments and specific sector dynamics. Its competitive expense ratio and large asset base are significant advantages for long-term holders.
| # | Ticker | Logo | Name | Sector | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AVGO | B | Broadcom Inc. | Technology | 7.6% |
| 2 | JPM | J | JPMorgan Chase & Co. | Financials | 4.2% |
| 3 | XOM | E | Exxon Mobil Corporation | Energy | 2.4% |
| 4 | JNJ | J | Johnson & Johnson | Healthcare | 2.4% |
| 5 | WMT | W | Walmart Inc. | Consumer Defensive | 2.3% |
| 6 | ABBV | A | AbbVie Inc. | Healthcare | 1.9% |
| 7 | BAC | B | Bank of America Corporation | Financials | 1.7% |
| 8 | HD | T | The Home Depot, Inc. | Consumer Cyclical | 1.6% |
| 9 | PG | T | The Procter & Gamble Company | Consumer Defensive | 1.6% |
| 10 | CSCO | C | Cisco Systems, Inc. | Technology | 1.4% |
| Category | Weight | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Financials | 21.9% | Includes banks, insurance, capital markets, and asset management firms. |
| Technology | 13.4% | Comprises semiconductor, software, and hardware companies. |
| Industrials | 13.2% | Consists of industrial products and aerospace & defense companies. |
| Healthcare | 12.9% | Includes drug manufacturers and healthcare plans. |
| Consumer Cyclical | 9.8% | Primarily composed of retail - cyclical businesses. |
| Consumer Defensive | 8.6% | Encompasses consumer packaged goods, beverages, and defensive retail. |
| Energy | 8.3% | Comprises oil & gas and energy minerals companies. |
| Utilities | 6.2% | Focused on regulated utility companies. |
| Communication Services | 3.6% | Mainly telecommunication services providers. |
| Basic Materials | 2.0% | |
| Real Estate | 0.0% |
| Year | ETF Return | Benchmark Return | Tracking Diff | Volatility | Max Drawdown | Sharpe Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 15.43% | 15.50% | -0.07% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2024 | 17.60% | 17.65% | -0.05% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2023 | 6.53% | 6.59% | -0.06% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2022 | -0.42% | -0.32% | -0.10% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2021 | 26.14% | 26.19% | -0.05% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Ticker | Name | Issuer | Exp Ratio | AUM (B) | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | Yield | StdDev 3Y | Sharpe 3Y | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VYM ⭐ | Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF | Vanguard | 6.00% | US$84.6B | 15.4% | 13.1% | 12.7% | 2.44% | 11.48% | 0.70 | 1.000% |
| SCHD | Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF | Charles Schwab | 6.00% | US$76.1B | 17.0% | N/A | N/A | 4.04% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| VOO | Vanguard S&P 500 ETF | Vanguard | 3.00% | US$400.0B | 20.0% | N/A | N/A | 1.40% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| VTV | Vanguard Value ETF | Vanguard | 4.00% | US$100.0B | 14.5% | N/A | N/A | 2.60% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Category Average | 47.00% | — | 16.7% | 13.1% | 12.7% | 2.55% | — | 0.70 | — | ||
| 1 Year | 3 Years | 5 Years | 10 Years |
|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | 11.48% | N/A | N/A |
| 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y |
|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | 0.70 | N/A | N/A |
| 3 Years | 5 Years |
|---|---|
| N/A | N/A |
| 1 Year | 3 Years | 5 Years | Since Inception |
|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | N/A | N/A | -16.64% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Median (Percent) | 1.000% |
| Median (Dollar) | US$0.01 |
| During Hours | N/A |
| At Close | N/A |
| Volatility | low |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current | 73.00% |
| 30-Day Average | 0.00% |
| 1-Year Average | 0.00% |
| Standard Deviation | N/A |
| Max Premium (1Y) | 2.00% |
| Max Discount (1Y) | -2.00% |
| Period | Net Flow |
|---|
⚠️ Disclaimer: This ETF research report is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell securities. EC² Invest is not a registered investment advisor. All data is sourced from public sources and may contain errors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. ETF investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.