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The Hershey Company

HSY:NYSE

Consumer Defensive | Confectioners

Closing Price
US$194.75 (30 Jan 2026)
+0.02% (1 day)
Market Cap
US$39.5B
Analyst Consensus
Hold
7 Buy, 17 Hold, 1 Sell
Avg Price Target
US$198.43
Range: US$137 - US$233

Executive Summary

📊 The Bottom Line

The Hershey Company is a dominant player in the North American confectionery and salty snacks markets, boasting iconic brands and a resilient business model in the consumer defensive sector. Despite facing commodity cost pressures, its strong brand equity and pricing power allow it to maintain profitability.

⚖️ Risk vs Reward

At its current price of US$194.75, Hershey trades with a trailing P/E of 28.47 and a forward P/E of 27.55. Analyst targets suggest a range from US$137 to US$233, with an average of US$198.43. The risk-reward appears balanced, with limited immediate upside to the average target but robust defensive qualities.

🚀 Why HSY Could Soar

  • Continued expansion in international markets, particularly in emerging economies, could unlock new revenue streams and growth opportunities for Hershey.
  • Successful innovation in new product categories or healthier snack alternatives could capture evolving consumer preferences and expand market share beyond traditional confectionery.
  • Strategic acquisitions of complementary snack brands could further diversify Hershey's portfolio and enhance its presence in the growing salty snack segment.

⚠️ What Could Go Wrong

  • Significant increases in cocoa and other commodity costs, if not offset by price increases or efficiencies, could compress Hershey's profit margins.
  • Intensified competition from private label brands or smaller, agile snack companies could lead to market share erosion and pricing pressures.
  • Changes in consumer preferences towards healthier eating or away from sugar-laden products could negatively impact demand for Hershey's core confectionery offerings.

🏢 Company Overview

💰 How HSY Makes Money

  • The Hershey Company manufactures and sells a wide range of chocolate and non-chocolate confectionery products to consumers globally.
  • It offers various pantry items such as baking ingredients, toppings, and beverages, catering to at-home consumption and baking needs.
  • The company has expanded its portfolio into salty snacks, including popcorn and pretzels, addressing diverse snacking occasions.
  • Products are distributed through a broad network including wholesale distributors, grocery stores, mass merchandisers, and convenience stores.
  • Revenue is primarily driven by strong brand recognition, effective marketing, and efficient supply chain management in the consumer defensive sector.

Revenue Breakdown

North America Confectionery

82.5%

Chocolate and non-chocolate candy products sold in the U.S. and Canada.

North America Salty Snacks

10%

Popcorn, pretzels, and other savory snack items sold primarily in the U.S.

International

7.5%

Sales of confectionery and snack products outside of North America.

🎯 WHY THIS MATTERS

Hershey's business model is largely resilient due to its focus on consumer defensive products, which tend to perform consistently across economic cycles. The diversified portfolio across confectionery and snacks helps mitigate risks associated with reliance on a single product category, while strong brand loyalty ensures steady demand.

Competitive Advantage: What Makes HSY Special

1. Iconic Brand Portfolio

HighStructural (Permanent)

Hershey owns some of the most recognized and beloved confectionery brands globally, including Hershey's, Reese's, Kit Kat (in the U.S.), and Kisses. This strong brand equity allows for premium pricing, fosters deep consumer loyalty, and provides significant shelf space advantages in retail environments. Consumers often choose these trusted brands regardless of minor price fluctuations, contributing to consistent sales volumes.

2. Extensive Distribution Network

Medium10+ Years

The company has built an incredibly wide and efficient distribution network across North America and increasingly internationally. Its products are ubiquitous, found in everything from large chain grocery stores and mass merchandisers to small convenience stores and vending machines. This pervasive presence ensures high availability, making it difficult for new entrants or smaller competitors to match the reach and convenience Hershey offers to consumers.

3. Scale and Operational Efficiency

Medium5-10 Years

As one of the largest confectioners, Hershey benefits from significant economies of scale in sourcing raw materials like cocoa and sugar, manufacturing, and marketing. This scale translates into lower per-unit costs and higher operating margins compared to smaller competitors. Its established supply chain and manufacturing processes also lead to greater efficiency and reliability, allowing the company to withstand some commodity price volatility and maintain competitive pricing.

🎯 WHY THIS MATTERS

These competitive advantages collectively create a strong moat around Hershey's business, enabling it to maintain market leadership and healthy profit margins. The combination of powerful brands, broad distribution, and operational scale makes it exceptionally difficult for rivals to challenge its dominant position in the confectionery and snack industries, ensuring long-term stability and profitability.

👔 Who's Running The Show

Kirk C. Tanner

President, CEO & Director

Mr. Kirk C. Tanner, 56, serves as Hershey's President, CEO, and Director. He assumed his role in 2024, bringing extensive experience in the consumer goods sector. His leadership is focused on driving innovation and expanding the company's global footprint, building on Hershey's strong foundation in confectionery and salty snacks.

⚔️ What's The Competition

The confectionery and snack market is highly competitive, characterized by both large multinational corporations and numerous smaller, regional players. Competition primarily revolves around brand recognition, product innovation, pricing, and distribution reach. Hershey competes with global food giants and specialized snack companies.

📊 Market Context

  • Total Addressable Market - The global confectionery market is valued at US$220B+, growing at a ~3-4% CAGR, driven by impulse purchases and premiumization trends.
  • Key Trend - Increased consumer demand for healthier snack options and transparent ingredient sourcing is reshaping product development.

Competitor

Description

vs HSY

Mondelēz International

Global snack and confectionery company with brands like Cadbury, Oreo, and Milka. Strong international presence.

Competes directly in chocolate and biscuits globally. Mondelēz has a larger international footprint, while Hershey dominates North American confectionery.

Mars, Incorporated

One of the world's largest confectionery and food companies, known for M&M's, Snickers, and Wrigley's gum.

Direct competitor across numerous chocolate and non-chocolate categories. Both companies vie for market share in mainstream candy aisles, often relying on brand power.

Nestlé S.A.

Swiss multinational food and drink processing conglomerate, with a diverse portfolio including confectionery, beverages, and pet care.

While Nestlé has a broad food business, its confectionery segment competes with Hershey in chocolate bars and candies, particularly outside North America.

Market Share - US Confectionery Market Share 2024

Hershey

36%

Mars Wrigley

28%

Mondelez

8%

Nestlé

5%

Others

23%

📊 Valuation & Analysis

📈 Wall Street Summary

Analyst Rating Distribution - 1 Sell, 17 Hold, 3 Buy, 4 Strong Buy

1

17

3

4

12-Month Price Target Range

Low Target

US$137

-30%

Average Target

US$198

+2%

High Target

US$233

+20%

Closing: US$194.75 (30 Jan 2026)

🚀 The Bull Case - Upside to US$233

1. Strong Brand Loyalty and Pricing Power

High Probability

Hershey's portfolio of iconic brands like Reese's and Kisses commands significant consumer loyalty, allowing the company to implement price increases to offset rising input costs without substantially impacting demand. This robust pricing power supports stable revenue growth and margin protection in inflationary environments, leading to consistent earnings performance.

2. Expansion in Salty Snacks Segment

Medium Probability

The strategic acquisitions of snack brands such as SkinnyPop and Dot's Homestyle Pretzels have diversified Hershey's product offerings beyond traditional confectionery. Continued growth and market penetration in the salty snacks category, which often has different consumption patterns and occasions, can provide a significant new growth vector and reduce reliance on its core chocolate business.

3. International Market Growth Potential

Low Probability

While North America is currently Hershey's primary market, there is considerable untapped potential in international markets, particularly in developing economies where disposable incomes are rising. Successful expansion in regions like India, Brazil, and parts of Asia could significantly increase Hershey's addressable market and drive long-term revenue and profit growth beyond its mature domestic market.

🐻 The Bear Case - Downside to US$137

1. Volatile Commodity Prices

High Probability

Hershey is highly susceptible to fluctuations in commodity prices, especially cocoa, sugar, and dairy. Prolonged increases in these raw material costs, exacerbated by supply chain disruptions or adverse weather conditions, could severely impact gross profit margins if the company cannot fully pass on these costs to consumers through price increases or achieve offsetting efficiencies.

2. Shifting Consumer Health Trends

Medium Probability

Growing consumer awareness about health and wellness, including concerns over sugar intake and artificial ingredients, poses a long-term threat to traditional confectionery products. A significant shift towards healthier snacking alternatives could lead to reduced demand for Hershey's core offerings and require substantial investment in product reformulation or new product development.

3. Intensified Competition and Private Labels

Medium Probability

The confectionery and snack market is fiercely competitive. Increased penetration by aggressive private label brands, along with innovative smaller players, could intensify price wars and erode Hershey's market share. This could force the company to lower prices or increase marketing spend, negatively impacting revenue growth and profitability.

🔮 Final thought: Is this a long term relationship?

Owning Hershey for a decade hinges on the continued resilience of its iconic brands and its ability to adapt to evolving consumer preferences. Its strong pricing power and extensive distribution network provide a durable competitive advantage. However, long-term investors must weigh the risks of volatile commodity costs and the secular shift towards healthier eating. Continued successful diversification into salty snacks and measured international expansion are crucial for sustained growth. Management's strategic focus on innovation and efficiency will be key to navigating these challenges and maintaining shareholder value over the next ten years.

📋 Appendix

Financial Performance

Metric

31 Dec 2024

31 Dec 2023

31 Dec 2022

Income Statement

Revenue

US$11.20B

US$11.16B

US$10.42B

Gross Profit

US$5.30B

US$5.00B

US$4.50B

Operating Income

US$2.93B

US$2.56B

US$2.26B

Net Income

US$2.22B

US$1.86B

US$1.64B

EPS (Diluted)

10.92

9.06

7.96

Balance Sheet

Cash & Equivalents

US$0.73B

US$0.40B

US$0.46B

Total Assets

US$12.95B

US$11.90B

US$10.95B

Total Debt

US$5.45B

US$5.13B

US$5.12B

Shareholders' Equity

US$4.71B

US$4.10B

US$3.30B

Key Ratios

Gross Margin

47.3%

44.8%

43.2%

Operating Margin

26.1%

22.9%

21.7%

Return on Equity

47.11

45.42

49.85

Analyst Estimates

Metric

Annual (31 Dec 2025)

Annual (31 Dec 2026)

EPS Estimate

US$6.00

US$7.07

EPS Growth

-36.0%

+17.8%

Revenue Estimate

US$11.6B

US$12.0B

Revenue Growth

+3.4%

+3.6%

Number of Analysts

23

23

Valuation Ratios

MetricValueDescription
P/E Ratio (TTM)28.47The price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) measures the current share price relative to the company's trailing twelve months earnings per share, indicating how much investors are willing to pay per dollar of earnings.
Forward P/E27.55The forward price-to-earnings ratio uses estimated future earnings to gauge a company's valuation, providing insight into investor expectations for future profitability.
Price/Sales (TTM)3.44The price-to-sales ratio (TTM) compares a company's market capitalization to its revenue over the past twelve months, indicating how much investors are willing to pay per dollar of sales.
Price/Book (MRQ)8.65The price-to-book ratio (MRQ) compares a company's market value to its book value, indicating how investors value the company relative to its net assets.
EV/EBITDA17.98Enterprise Value to EBITDA measures the total value of a company (including debt) relative to its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, often used to compare similar companies.
Return on Equity (TTM)0.31Return on Equity (TTM) measures the profitability of a company in relation to the equity invested by shareholders, indicating how efficiently a company is generating profits from its equity.
Operating Margin0.14Operating Margin indicates how much profit a company makes on each dollar of sales after paying for variable costs of production, such as wages and raw materials, but before accounting for interest expense and taxes.

Peer Comparison

CompanyMarket Cap (B)P/E RatioP/B RatioRevenue Growth (%)Operating Margin (%)
The Hershey Company (Target)39.4928.478.650.1%0.1%
Mondelez International Inc.86.6719.823.450.1%0.2%
Nestlé S.A.298.6722.343.890.1%0.2%
Kellogg Company20.9017.502.500.1%0.1%
Sector Average19.893.280.1%0.2%
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