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Consumer Defensive | Confectioners
📊 The Bottom Line
The Hershey Company is a dominant player in the North American confectionery and salty snacks markets, boasting iconic brands and a resilient business model in the consumer defensive sector. Despite facing commodity cost pressures, its strong brand equity and pricing power allow it to maintain profitability.
⚖️ Risk vs Reward
At its current price of US$194.75, Hershey trades with a trailing P/E of 28.47 and a forward P/E of 27.55. Analyst targets suggest a range from US$137 to US$233, with an average of US$198.43. The risk-reward appears balanced, with limited immediate upside to the average target but robust defensive qualities.
🚀 Why HSY Could Soar
⚠️ What Could Go Wrong
North America Confectionery
82.5%
Chocolate and non-chocolate candy products sold in the U.S. and Canada.
North America Salty Snacks
10%
Popcorn, pretzels, and other savory snack items sold primarily in the U.S.
International
7.5%
Sales of confectionery and snack products outside of North America.
🎯 WHY THIS MATTERS
Hershey's business model is largely resilient due to its focus on consumer defensive products, which tend to perform consistently across economic cycles. The diversified portfolio across confectionery and snacks helps mitigate risks associated with reliance on a single product category, while strong brand loyalty ensures steady demand.
Hershey owns some of the most recognized and beloved confectionery brands globally, including Hershey's, Reese's, Kit Kat (in the U.S.), and Kisses. This strong brand equity allows for premium pricing, fosters deep consumer loyalty, and provides significant shelf space advantages in retail environments. Consumers often choose these trusted brands regardless of minor price fluctuations, contributing to consistent sales volumes.
The company has built an incredibly wide and efficient distribution network across North America and increasingly internationally. Its products are ubiquitous, found in everything from large chain grocery stores and mass merchandisers to small convenience stores and vending machines. This pervasive presence ensures high availability, making it difficult for new entrants or smaller competitors to match the reach and convenience Hershey offers to consumers.
As one of the largest confectioners, Hershey benefits from significant economies of scale in sourcing raw materials like cocoa and sugar, manufacturing, and marketing. This scale translates into lower per-unit costs and higher operating margins compared to smaller competitors. Its established supply chain and manufacturing processes also lead to greater efficiency and reliability, allowing the company to withstand some commodity price volatility and maintain competitive pricing.
🎯 WHY THIS MATTERS
These competitive advantages collectively create a strong moat around Hershey's business, enabling it to maintain market leadership and healthy profit margins. The combination of powerful brands, broad distribution, and operational scale makes it exceptionally difficult for rivals to challenge its dominant position in the confectionery and snack industries, ensuring long-term stability and profitability.
Kirk C. Tanner
President, CEO & Director
Mr. Kirk C. Tanner, 56, serves as Hershey's President, CEO, and Director. He assumed his role in 2024, bringing extensive experience in the consumer goods sector. His leadership is focused on driving innovation and expanding the company's global footprint, building on Hershey's strong foundation in confectionery and salty snacks.
The confectionery and snack market is highly competitive, characterized by both large multinational corporations and numerous smaller, regional players. Competition primarily revolves around brand recognition, product innovation, pricing, and distribution reach. Hershey competes with global food giants and specialized snack companies.
📊 Market Context
Competitor
Description
vs HSY
Mondelēz International
Global snack and confectionery company with brands like Cadbury, Oreo, and Milka. Strong international presence.
Competes directly in chocolate and biscuits globally. Mondelēz has a larger international footprint, while Hershey dominates North American confectionery.
Mars, Incorporated
One of the world's largest confectionery and food companies, known for M&M's, Snickers, and Wrigley's gum.
Direct competitor across numerous chocolate and non-chocolate categories. Both companies vie for market share in mainstream candy aisles, often relying on brand power.
Nestlé S.A.
Swiss multinational food and drink processing conglomerate, with a diverse portfolio including confectionery, beverages, and pet care.
While Nestlé has a broad food business, its confectionery segment competes with Hershey in chocolate bars and candies, particularly outside North America.
Hershey
36%
Mars Wrigley
28%
Mondelez
8%
Nestlé
5%
Others
23%
1
17
3
4
Low Target
US$137
-30%
Average Target
US$198
+2%
High Target
US$233
+20%
Closing: US$194.75 (30 Jan 2026)
High Probability
Hershey's portfolio of iconic brands like Reese's and Kisses commands significant consumer loyalty, allowing the company to implement price increases to offset rising input costs without substantially impacting demand. This robust pricing power supports stable revenue growth and margin protection in inflationary environments, leading to consistent earnings performance.
Medium Probability
The strategic acquisitions of snack brands such as SkinnyPop and Dot's Homestyle Pretzels have diversified Hershey's product offerings beyond traditional confectionery. Continued growth and market penetration in the salty snacks category, which often has different consumption patterns and occasions, can provide a significant new growth vector and reduce reliance on its core chocolate business.
Low Probability
While North America is currently Hershey's primary market, there is considerable untapped potential in international markets, particularly in developing economies where disposable incomes are rising. Successful expansion in regions like India, Brazil, and parts of Asia could significantly increase Hershey's addressable market and drive long-term revenue and profit growth beyond its mature domestic market.
High Probability
Hershey is highly susceptible to fluctuations in commodity prices, especially cocoa, sugar, and dairy. Prolonged increases in these raw material costs, exacerbated by supply chain disruptions or adverse weather conditions, could severely impact gross profit margins if the company cannot fully pass on these costs to consumers through price increases or achieve offsetting efficiencies.
Medium Probability
Growing consumer awareness about health and wellness, including concerns over sugar intake and artificial ingredients, poses a long-term threat to traditional confectionery products. A significant shift towards healthier snacking alternatives could lead to reduced demand for Hershey's core offerings and require substantial investment in product reformulation or new product development.
Medium Probability
The confectionery and snack market is fiercely competitive. Increased penetration by aggressive private label brands, along with innovative smaller players, could intensify price wars and erode Hershey's market share. This could force the company to lower prices or increase marketing spend, negatively impacting revenue growth and profitability.
Owning Hershey for a decade hinges on the continued resilience of its iconic brands and its ability to adapt to evolving consumer preferences. Its strong pricing power and extensive distribution network provide a durable competitive advantage. However, long-term investors must weigh the risks of volatile commodity costs and the secular shift towards healthier eating. Continued successful diversification into salty snacks and measured international expansion are crucial for sustained growth. Management's strategic focus on innovation and efficiency will be key to navigating these challenges and maintaining shareholder value over the next ten years.
Metric
31 Dec 2024
31 Dec 2023
31 Dec 2022
Income Statement
Revenue
US$11.20B
US$11.16B
US$10.42B
Gross Profit
US$5.30B
US$5.00B
US$4.50B
Operating Income
US$2.93B
US$2.56B
US$2.26B
Net Income
US$2.22B
US$1.86B
US$1.64B
EPS (Diluted)
10.92
9.06
7.96
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents
US$0.73B
US$0.40B
US$0.46B
Total Assets
US$12.95B
US$11.90B
US$10.95B
Total Debt
US$5.45B
US$5.13B
US$5.12B
Shareholders' Equity
US$4.71B
US$4.10B
US$3.30B
Key Ratios
Gross Margin
47.3%
44.8%
43.2%
Operating Margin
26.1%
22.9%
21.7%
Return on Equity
47.11
45.42
49.85
Metric
Annual (31 Dec 2025)
Annual (31 Dec 2026)
EPS Estimate
US$6.00
US$7.07
EPS Growth
-36.0%
+17.8%
Revenue Estimate
US$11.6B
US$12.0B
Revenue Growth
+3.4%
+3.6%
Number of Analysts
23
23
| Metric | Value | Description |
|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio (TTM) | 28.47 | The price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) measures the current share price relative to the company's trailing twelve months earnings per share, indicating how much investors are willing to pay per dollar of earnings. |
| Forward P/E | 27.55 | The forward price-to-earnings ratio uses estimated future earnings to gauge a company's valuation, providing insight into investor expectations for future profitability. |
| Price/Sales (TTM) | 3.44 | The price-to-sales ratio (TTM) compares a company's market capitalization to its revenue over the past twelve months, indicating how much investors are willing to pay per dollar of sales. |
| Price/Book (MRQ) | 8.65 | The price-to-book ratio (MRQ) compares a company's market value to its book value, indicating how investors value the company relative to its net assets. |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.98 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA measures the total value of a company (including debt) relative to its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, often used to compare similar companies. |
| Return on Equity (TTM) | 0.31 | Return on Equity (TTM) measures the profitability of a company in relation to the equity invested by shareholders, indicating how efficiently a company is generating profits from its equity. |
| Operating Margin | 0.14 | Operating Margin indicates how much profit a company makes on each dollar of sales after paying for variable costs of production, such as wages and raw materials, but before accounting for interest expense and taxes. |
| Company | Market Cap (B) | P/E Ratio | P/B Ratio | Revenue Growth (%) | Operating Margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Hershey Company (Target) | 39.49 | 28.47 | 8.65 | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Mondelez International Inc. | 86.67 | 19.82 | 3.45 | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Nestlé S.A. | 298.67 | 22.34 | 3.89 | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Kellogg Company | 20.90 | 17.50 | 2.50 | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Sector Average | — | 19.89 | 3.28 | 0.1% | 0.2% |