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Texas Roadhouse, Inc.

TXRH:NASDAQ

Consumer Cyclical | Restaurants

Current Price
US$166.27
-0.01%
1 day
Market Cap
US$11.0B
-12.8% YoY
Analyst Consensus
Hold
11 Buy, 18 Hold, 0 Sell
Avg Price Target
US$189.16
Range: US$155 - US$228
餐飲美食

報告撮要

📊 核心結論

Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) 在休閒餐飲領域擁有以價值和品質為中心的強健商業模式。儘管近期盈利增長略有下降,但其持續的同店銷售增長和強大品牌忠誠度顯示出堅實的業務基礎。營運效率和獨特的用餐體驗是其成功的關鍵驅動力。(Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) has a robust business model focused on value and quality in the casual dining segment. Despite a slight dip in recent earnings growth, its consistent same-store sales growth and strong brand loyalty demonstrate fundamental business strength. Its operational efficiency and unique dining experience are key drivers of its success.)

⚖️ 風險與回報

分析師普遍預期目標價為 US$189.16,暗示較目前 US$166.27 的價格有潛在升幅。儘管其估值高於部分同業,但其強大的競爭優勢或可支持此估值。對於長期投資者而言,增長機會抵銷了市場挑戰,風險與回報平衡。(Analysts have a consensus price target of US$189.16, suggesting potential upside from the current price of US$166.27. While trading at a premium to some peers, its strong competitive advantages may justify this valuation. The risk-reward profile appears balanced for long-term investors, with growth opportunities offsetting market challenges.)

🚀 為何TXRH有望大升

  • 持續同店銷售增長 (Sustained Same-Store Sales Growth): Texas Roadhouse 展現了穩定的同店銷售增長,表明其品牌和價值主張持續吸引顧客。
  • 市場份額擴大 (Expanding Market Share): 公司在休閒餐飲領域持續擴大市場份額,鞏固其作為美國最大連鎖休閒餐飲的地位。
  • 強勁的客戶忠誠度 (Strong Customer Loyalty): 提供高品質餐點和實惠價格的價值主張,有助於建立深厚的客戶忠誠度,確保穩定的客流量。

⚠️ 潛在風險

  • 成本上升壓力 (Rising Cost Pressures): 食材、勞動力和租金成本的持續上漲可能壓縮利潤率,影響盈利能力。
  • 消費者支出波動 (Fluctuations in Consumer Spending): 經濟下行或消費者信心下降可能導致外出用餐頻率減少,直接衝擊營收。
  • 激烈市場競爭 (Intense Market Competition): 休閒餐飲市場競爭激烈,來自其他連鎖店和獨立餐廳的壓力可能導致定價戰和市場份額損失。

🏢 公司概覽

💰 TXRH的盈利模式

  • Texas Roadhouse 主要透過在美國及國際營運的休閒餐飲連鎖店賺取收入 (Texas Roadhouse primarily generates revenue through its casual dining restaurant chains operating in the U.S. and internationally)。
  • 公司旗下品牌包括 Texas Roadhouse, Bubba's 33 及 Jaggers,提供手切牛排、排骨、新鮮烘焙麵包和自製配菜 (The company's brands include Texas Roadhouse, Bubba's 33, and Jaggers, offering hand-cut steaks, ribs, freshly baked bread, and made-from-scratch sides)。
  • 收入主要來自公司直營餐廳的銷售,並透過特許經營權獲得特許權使用費和費用 (Revenue primarily comes from sales at company-operated restaurants, supplemented by royalties and franchise fees from franchised locations)。
  • 透過提供高品質餐點和實惠的價格,吸引並留住廣泛的顧客群 (It attracts and retains a broad customer base by offering high-quality meals at affordable prices)。

收入結構

公司直營餐廳銷售 (Company-Operated Restaurant Sales)

90%

來自公司擁有及營運餐廳的餐點銷售 (Sales from company-owned and operated restaurants)

特許權使用費和費用 (Franchise Royalties and Fees)

10%

來自特許經營合作夥伴的持續收入 (Ongoing revenue from franchise partners)

🎯 意義與重要性

這種模式結合了直營店的直接控制和特許經營的擴張潛力,使其能夠在保持品牌一致性的同時實現增長 (This model combines the direct control of company-operated stores with the expansion potential of franchising, allowing for growth while maintaining brand consistency)。對高品質和價值餐飲的承諾有助於建立穩定的客戶群和品牌忠誠度 (The commitment to high-quality, value-driven dining helps build a stable customer base and brand loyalty)。

競爭優勢: TXRH的獨特之處

1. 卓越的價值主張 (Superior Value Proposition)

HighStructural (Permanent)

Texas Roadhouse 以提供高品質、從零開始製作的餐點(例如手切牛排和新鮮烘焙麵包)和具競爭力的價格而聞名。這種價值組合在休閒餐飲市場中脫穎而出,尤其是在消費者對價格敏感的時期。它建立了強大的客戶忠誠度並維持穩定的客流量 (Texas Roadhouse is renowned for offering high-quality, made-from-scratch meals, such as hand-cut steaks and freshly baked bread, at competitive prices. This value combination stands out in the casual dining market, especially during periods of consumer price sensitivity. It builds strong customer loyalty and maintains consistent foot traffic.)。

2. 獨特的用餐體驗 (Unique Dining Experience)

Medium5-10 Years

公司營造出一種充滿活力、家庭友善且獨特的「德州主題」氛圍,區別於其他休閒餐飲連鎖店。這種體驗包括花生桶和舞線表演等特色,提升了顧客的整體滿意度。這種獨特的環境使其能夠在競爭激烈的市場中吸引和留住顧客 (The company creates a vibrant, family-friendly, and distinctive "Texas-themed" atmosphere, setting it apart from other casual dining chains. This experience, including features like peanut buckets and line dancing, enhances overall customer satisfaction. This unique environment allows it to attract and retain customers in a competitive market)。

3. 強勁的營運效率 (Strong Operational Efficiency)

Medium5-10 Years

Texas Roadhouse 展現了持續的同店銷售增長能力,即使在競爭激烈的環境中也表現出色。這反映了其強大的營運管理、成本控制和員工培訓,確保了服務的一致性和食品品質。這種效率使其能夠在保持盈利能力的同時提供卓越的價值 (Texas Roadhouse demonstrates a consistent ability to drive same-store sales growth, performing well even in competitive environments. This reflects strong operational management, cost control, and employee training, ensuring consistent service and food quality. This efficiency allows it to provide exceptional value while maintaining profitability)。

🎯 意義與重要性

這些競爭優勢共同鞏固了 Texas Roadhouse 在休閒餐飲市場中的地位,使其能夠在提供卓越客戶價值的同時,抵禦競爭並實現盈利增長 (These competitive advantages collectively strengthen Texas Roadhouse's position in the casual dining market, allowing it to withstand competition and achieve profitable growth while delivering exceptional customer value)。這種組合對於維持長期品牌吸引力和財務表現至關重要 (This combination is crucial for sustaining long-term brand appeal and financial performance)。

👔 管理團隊

Jerry Morgan

首席執行官 (CEO)

Jerry Morgan 自 2021 年起擔任首席執行官,此前擁有超過三十年的餐廳營運經驗,並在 Texas Roadhouse 擔任過多個領導職位。他在公司文化和營運方面的深厚知識,對於維持品牌價值和推動增長至關重要。他的領導專注於保持公司的獨特客戶體驗和核心價值 (Jerry Morgan has served as CEO since 2021, bringing over three decades of restaurant operations experience and various leadership roles within Texas Roadhouse. His deep knowledge of the company's culture and operations is crucial for maintaining brand values and driving growth. His leadership focuses on preserving the company's unique customer experience and core values)。

⚔️ 競爭對手

休閒餐飲市場競爭激烈且分散,主要由大型連鎖店和眾多獨立餐廳組成。競爭者透過價格、菜單創新、用餐體驗和品牌忠誠度進行競爭。Texas Roadhouse 的核心競爭優勢在於其價值定位和獨特的氛圍,使其能在這個擁擠的市場中脫穎而出 (The casual dining market is highly competitive and fragmented, consisting of large chains and numerous independent restaurants. Competitors vie for market share through pricing, menu innovation, dining experience, and brand loyalty. Texas Roadhouse's core competitive edge lies in its value proposition and unique atmosphere, allowing it to stand out in this crowded market)。

📊 市場背景

  • 可觸及總市場(TAM) - 美國休閒餐飲市場在 2024 年預計達到 US$315.7 億,並由消費者對外出用餐的持續需求所推動 (The U.S. casual dining market is projected to reach US$315.7 billion in 2024, driven by sustained consumer demand for dining out)。
  • 關鍵趨勢 - 顧客對價值和高品質用餐體驗的持續需求,推動了以實惠價格提供優質餐點的餐廳增長 (Persistent consumer demand for value and high-quality dining experiences drives growth for restaurants offering premium meals at affordable prices)。

競爭者

簡介

與TXRH對比

Longhorn Steakhouse (長角牛排屋)

由 Darden Restaurants (DRI) 擁有,專注於牛排和南部風味菜餚,是 Texas Roadhouse 的直接競爭對手 (Owned by Darden Restaurants (DRI), it focuses on steaks and Southern-inspired cuisine, serving as a direct competitor to Texas Roadhouse)。

提供類似的牛排主題,但其用餐氛圍可能略顯正式,且通常價格點較高 (Offers a similar steakhouse theme but its dining atmosphere may be slightly more formal, and generally at a higher price point)。

Outback Steakhouse (澳美客牛排屋)

由 Bloomin' Brands (BLMN) 擁有,提供澳式主題的牛排和海鮮,在全球設有分店 (Owned by Bloomin' Brands (BLMN), it offers Australian-themed steaks and seafood, with locations globally)。

與 Texas Roadhouse 在牛排細分市場競爭,但其菜單可能更廣泛,並強調國際化風格 (Competes with Texas Roadhouse in the steakhouse segment, but its menu might be broader and emphasizes an international style)。

The Cheesecake Factory (芝樂坊餐廳)

提供非常多樣化的菜單和較大的份量,以其特色芝士蛋糕聞名,吸引了廣泛的顧客群 (Offers a very diverse menu with large portions, known for its signature cheesecakes, attracting a broad customer base)。

提供更廣泛的菜單選擇,吸引不同客群,但其用餐體驗可能不如 Texas Roadhouse 專注於特定的「德州」主題 (Offers a much broader menu selection, appealing to different customer segments, but its dining experience may be less focused on a specific "Texas" theme than Texas Roadhouse)。

市場佔有率 - 美國休閒餐飲牛排市場 (US Casual Dining Steakhouse Market)

Texas Roadhouse

20%

Longhorn Steakhouse

15%

Outback Steakhouse

12%

其他牛排館 (Other Steakhouses)

53%

📊 估值與分析

📈 華爾街總結

分析師評級分佈:18 持有, 10 買入, 1 強烈買入

18

10

1

12 個月目標價範圍

最低目標價

US$155

-7%

平均目標價

US$189

+14%

最高目標價

US$228

+37%

目前價格: US$166.27

🚀 利好情境 - 利好空間至 US$228

1. 穩健的單位經濟效益和擴張 (Robust Unit Economics and Expansion)

High機率

Texas Roadhouse 新開餐廳的強勁表現,加上其高效的營運模式,應能持續推動收入和盈利增長。新的 Bubba's 33 和 Jaggers 品牌提供了額外的增長途徑。(Texas Roadhouse's strong performance from new restaurant openings, coupled with its efficient operating model, should continue to drive revenue and earnings growth. New Bubba's 33 and Jaggers brands offer additional avenues for expansion.)

2. 抵禦通脹壓力的能力 (Ability to Resist Inflationary Pressures)

Medium機率

儘管行業面臨成本上升,Texas Roadhouse 的強大品牌和忠誠客戶群使其能夠策略性地調整價格,以部分抵消通脹影響,而不會顯著影響客流量。(Despite industry-wide cost increases, Texas Roadhouse's strong brand and loyal customer base allow it to strategically adjust prices to partially offset inflationary impacts without significantly affecting traffic.)

3. 創新菜單和客戶體驗 (Innovative Menu and Customer Experience)

High機率

公司持續創新其菜單,同時保持核心產品的吸引力,並透過獨特的用餐氛圍提升客戶體驗,這將繼續吸引新客戶並鼓勵回頭客。(The company continuously innovates its menu while maintaining the appeal of its core offerings, and enhances the customer experience through its unique dining atmosphere, which will continue to attract new customers and encourage repeat visits.)

🐻 利淡情境 - 看涨空間至 US$155

1. 勞動力和食品成本飆升 (Soaring Labor and Food Costs)

High機率

餐廳行業正經歷嚴峻的勞動力短缺和食品商品價格上漲。如果這些成本壓力無法轉嫁給消費者,將嚴重侵蝕 Texas Roadhouse 的盈利能力。(The restaurant industry is experiencing severe labor shortages and rising food commodity prices. If these cost pressures cannot be passed on to consumers, Texas Roadhouse's profitability will be severely eroded.)

2. 消費支出放緩 (Slowing Consumer Spending)

Medium機率

宏觀經濟不確定性或消費者信心下降可能導致外出用餐的自由支配支出減少。這會導致客流量下降和平均消費金額減少。(Macroeconomic uncertainty or declining consumer confidence could lead to a reduction in discretionary spending on dining out. This would result in decreased foot traffic and lower average checks.)

3. 來自快速休閒餐飲的競爭加劇 (Increased Competition from Fast Casual)

Medium機率

快速休閒餐飲模式的興起,提供高品質餐點和更快的服務,可能從傳統休閒餐飲中搶走市場份額,特別是針對尋求便利的消費者。(The rise of fast-casual dining, offering high-quality meals with faster service, could capture market share from traditional casual dining, especially for consumers seeking convenience.)

🔮 結語:是否適合長線投資?

如果投資者相信 Texas Roadhouse 能夠在未來十年保持其獨特的價值主張、卓越的客戶體驗和強勁的營運效率,那麼它可能是一項有吸引力的長期投資 (If investors believe Texas Roadhouse can maintain its unique value proposition, excellent customer experience, and strong operational efficiency over the next decade, it could be an attractive long-term investment)。維持品牌忠誠度和有效應對不斷變化的消費者偏好將至關重要 (Maintaining brand loyalty and effectively responding to evolving consumer preferences will be crucial)。潛在風險包括持續的成本壓力、勞動力市場動態和消費者對更健康或更快速餐飲選擇的轉變 (Potential risks include persistent cost pressures, labor market dynamics, and shifts in consumer preference towards healthier or faster dining options)。

📋 附錄

財務表現

Metric

FY 2022

FY 2023

FY 2024

FY 2025 (Est)

FY 2026 (Est)

Income Statement

Revenue

US$4.01B

US$4.63B

US$5.37B

US$5.83B

US$6.42B

Gross Profit

US$0.65B

US$0.74B

US$0.95B

US$0.98B

US$1.07B

Operating Income

US$0.32B

US$0.35B

US$0.52B

US$0.52B

US$0.57B

Net Income

US$0.27B

US$0.30B

US$0.43B

US$0.44B

US$0.46B

EPS (Diluted)

3.97

4.54

6.47

6.55

6.88

Balance Sheet

Cash & Equivalents

US$0.17B

US$0.10B

US$0.25B

US$0.11B

US$0.11B

Total Assets

US$2.53B

US$2.79B

US$3.19B

US$3.27B

US$3.43B

Total Debt

US$0.75B

US$0.77B

US$0.85B

US$0.93B

US$0.96B

Shareholders' Equity

US$1.01B

US$1.14B

US$1.36B

US$1.46B

US$1.53B

Key Ratios

Gross Margin

16.3%

15.9%

17.6%

16.7%

16.7%

Operating Margin

8.0%

7.6%

9.6%

8.9%

8.9%

股本回報率 (%) (Return on Equity (%))

26.65

26.70

31.92

31.88

31.88

估值比率

指標數值簡介
市盈率 (P/E Ratio (TTM))25.38衡量公司當前股價與過去十二個月每股收益的比率,用於評估股票估值 (Measures the ratio of a company's current share price to its earnings per share over the trailing twelve months, used to assess stock valuation)。
預期市盈率 (Forward P/E)23.25衡量公司當前股價與預期未來十二個月每股收益的比率,用於評估未來盈利潛力 (Measures the ratio of a company's current share price to its expected earnings per share over the next twelve months, used to assess future earnings potential)。
市盈增長比率 (PEG Ratio)N/A將市盈率與預期收益增長率相比較,用於評估股票在考慮增長後的估值 (Compares the P/E ratio to the expected earnings growth rate, used to assess a stock's valuation considering growth)。
市銷率 (P/Sales (TTM))1.89衡量公司市值與過去十二個月營收的比率,表示每單位營收的股價 (Measures the ratio of a company's market capitalization to its revenue over the trailing twelve months, indicating the stock price per unit of revenue)。
市淨率 (P/Book (MRQ))7.71衡量公司市值與最近一個季度股東權益的比率,顯示市場對公司淨資產的估值 (Measures the ratio of a company's market capitalization to its shareholders' equity for the most recent quarter, showing the market's valuation of the company's net assets)。
企業價值/EBITDA (EV/EBITDA)16.91衡量公司企業價值與過去十二個月 EBITDA 的比率,常用於比較資本密集型行業公司的估值 (Measures the ratio of a company's enterprise value to its EBITDA over the trailing twelve months, often used to compare valuations of companies in capital-intensive industries)。
股本回報率 (Return on Equity (TTM))31.88衡量公司利用股東投資產生利潤的效率,顯示公司盈利能力 (Measures a company's efficiency in generating profits from shareholders' investments, indicating profitability)。
營運利潤率 (Operating Margin)6.76衡量公司從銷售中產生多少營運利潤的百分比,反映核心業務的效率 (Measures the percentage of operating profit a company generates from its sales, reflecting the efficiency of its core business)。

同業比較

公司市值(十億)市盈率市帳率收入增長(%)營業利潤率(%)
Texas Roadhouse (Target)11.0525.387.7112.8%8.9%
Darden Restaurants (DRI)24.2222.036.506.0%10.3%
Bloomin' Brands (BLMN)2.01N/A1.700.0%N/A
The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE)2.3414.193.507.0%5.9%
行業平均18.113.904.3%8.1%
⚠️ 延伸免責聲明及重要資訊 人工智能生成內容:本研究報告使用人工智能技術編制。雖然我們力求準確並依賴被認為可靠的資料來源,但人工智能生成的內容可能包含錯誤、遺漏或過時資訊。 非投資建議:本報告僅供參考及教育用途。報告內容不構成投資建議、買賣任何證券的建議或任何形式的財務建議。 投資風險:投資證券涉及重大風險,包括可能損失本金。過往表現不代表未來業績。在作出決定前,請仔細考慮您的投資目標、風險承受能力及財務狀況。 進行獨立研究:強烈建議您進行全面研究、盡職調查,並在作出投資決定前諮詢合資格的財務、法律及稅務專業人士。 閱覽及使用本報告,即表示您已閱讀、理解並同意本免責聲明。