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Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares

VTI:NYSE

equity ETF | passive | Vanguard | Tracks CRSP US Total Market Index

市場價格
US$342.03 (26 Jan 2026)
+14.14% (YoY)
資產淨值
US$340.54
+0.44% 溢價
收益率
1.12%
-8.26% (YoY)
費用率
3.00%
-96% 對比平均：73.00%
精選全集(ETF系列)

⚡ 報告撮要

📊 核心結論

This ETF tracks the entire investable U.S. stock market, offering diversified exposure across large, mid, small, and micro-cap stocks. It is a highly efficient and low-cost way to gain broad market access. The current bull case suggests the NAV could reach US$400 (+17%) over the next 12-18 months, while the bear case indicates a potential decline to US$289 (-15%). Its extremely low expense ratio makes it a core holding for long-term investors.

⚖️ 風險與回報

The underlying holdings within the U.S. total stock market trade at an aggregate P/E ratio of 27.4x, slightly above historical averages but reflecting strong earnings growth from market leaders. This valuation is in line with broader market trends, driven by optimism around technology and artificial intelligence. The fund provides balanced exposure to all market capitalization segments, which mitigates concentration risk found in more focused indices, yet it remains sensitive to overall U.S. economic performance. Upside potential is driven by continued economic expansion and corporate earnings, while downside risks include a significant economic slowdown or a prolonged period of inflation. The ETF's tight tracking and high liquidity reduce ETF-specific risks.

🚀 為何VTI有望大升

  • • Sustained U.S. economic growth, driven by robust consumer spending and corporate investment, could propel broad market earnings higher, increasing underlying stock valuations by an estimated 10-15%.
  • • Continued innovation in technology and AI, leading to productivity gains across various sectors, would boost the profitability and growth prospects of the diversified holdings within the fund, potentially adding 5-7% to returns.
  • • A 'soft landing' scenario for the economy, where inflation normalizes without a recession, could lead to multiple expansion for equities as investor confidence returns, resulting in a 8-12% upside for the broad market.

⚠️ 潛在風險

  • • An unexpected recession or significant economic downturn could lead to a substantial contraction in corporate earnings, potentially causing the broad market to decline by 15-20%.
  • • Persistent inflation forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates for longer could compress equity valuations, especially for growth-oriented companies, resulting in a 10-15% market correction.
  • • Geopolitical instability or an escalation of global trade tensions could disrupt supply chains and dampen international economic growth, negatively impacting multinational corporations held within the fund, potentially leading to a 5-10% market drop.

🏢 基金概覽

您實際購買的是什麼

  • The U.S. Total Stock Market encompasses virtually all publicly traded domestic equities, from the largest multinational corporations to emerging micro-cap companies, providing comprehensive exposure to the entire U.S. equity universe.
  • This broad market approach captures diverse sectors including technology, healthcare, financials, and consumer cyclicals, reflecting the overall health and growth trajectory of the American economy.
  • Constituents are typically market-capitalization weighted, meaning larger companies exert a greater influence on the fund's performance, but the inclusion of small and mid-cap stocks offers exposure to different growth drivers and volatility profiles.

市場動態與展望

  • The U.S. stock market currently navigates a period of evolving economic expectations, balancing resilience in consumer spending against concerns about inflation and interest rate trajectories.
  • Technology and mega-cap companies have driven significant returns recently, but a broader market participation is anticipated as economic strength diversifies across sectors.
  • Geopolitical developments and upcoming elections add a layer of uncertainty, potentially influencing investor sentiment and market volatility in the near term, while long-term growth is supported by innovation and demographic trends.

🎯 意義與重要性

Investing in the total U.S. stock market offers unparalleled diversification, mitigating single-stock or sector-specific risks. Understanding its dynamics is crucial because current valuations reflect a strong economic backdrop, yet it remains susceptible to macroeconomic shifts and policy changes. This comprehensive exposure allows investors to participate in the full spectrum of U.S. corporate growth, regardless of which specific segments outperform.

📈 估值與分析

歷史表現

YTD
+1.58%
1Y
+17.10%
Yearly Growth (3Y)
+22.25%
Yearly Growth (5Y)
+13.06%
Yearly Growth (10Y)
+14.25%
Yearly Growth (Since Inception)
+9.21%

當前估值

The Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF (VTI) holds a broad portfolio that currently trades at an aggregate price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 27.4x and a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 4.6x, as of December 31, 2025. This P/E ratio is slightly above its historical five-year average, reflecting a period of robust earnings growth from market-leading companies and sustained investor optimism. The fund's dividend yield stands at 1.11%. These valuation metrics suggest that while the market is not overtly cheap, it is also not in extreme bubble territory, with current pricing supported by strong corporate fundamentals and expectations for continued economic expansion. The composition across large, mid, and small-cap stocks generally offers a balanced valuation profile compared to more concentrated indices.

利好情境 - 利好空間至

Robust Corporate Earnings Growth

Medium 概率

If the diversified U.S. corporate sector achieves 10-12% earnings growth over the next 12-18 months, exceeding current consensus due to efficiency gains and solid demand, the ETF's NAV could increase by US$35-40.

Sustained Low Inflation & Rate Cuts

Medium 概率

A 'Goldilocks' economic scenario with cooling inflation allowing the Federal Reserve to implement interest rate cuts could lead to a P/E multiple expansion of 10-15% for the broad market, adding US$30-50 to the NAV.

Broadening Market Participation

High 概率

If economic growth extends beyond mega-cap technology to include mid- and small-cap segments more significantly, the broad diversification of VTI would capture this broader rally, potentially boosting NAV by US$20-30.

利淡情境 - 看涨空間至

Unexpected Economic Recession

Low 概率

A severe economic contraction could lead to a 20-25% decline in corporate earnings, causing the broad market's P/E multiple to compress, potentially reducing VTI's NAV by US$60-85.

Persistent Inflation & Higher Rates

Medium 概率

If inflation remains stubbornly high, prompting the Fed to maintain or even raise rates further, it could trigger a 15-20% valuation compression across equities, leading to a US$50-70 drop in NAV.

Geopolitical Escalation & Supply Shocks

Medium 概率

Significant escalation in geopolitical tensions or new supply chain disruptions could weigh on global trade and corporate profitability, potentially causing a 10-15% market correction and a US$30-50 NAV decline.

風險/回報評估

The risk-reward profile for VTI is currently balanced, albeit with sensitivity to macroeconomic shifts. The bull case hinges on continued U.S. economic resilience, supported by solid corporate earnings and a potential easing of monetary policy, which could drive modest multiple expansion and broader market participation. The ETF's vast diversification acts as a buffer, ensuring participation in any widespread upside. However, the bear case highlights significant vulnerabilities, particularly from a sharper-than-expected economic slowdown or persistent inflationary pressures that could force a more hawkish Fed stance. While the likelihood of a severe recession is currently considered low, the impact would be substantial given current valuations. Investors should weigh the fund's comprehensive market access against the inherent cyclicality and macroeconomic risks of the overall U.S. equity market, acknowledging that while long-term growth trends are favorable, short-to-medium term volatility remains a factor.

同業比較

Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF (VTI) stands out among its peers for its exceptionally low expense ratio and broad market coverage, making it a highly cost-efficient and diversified option for U.S. equity exposure. Its massive asset base ensures superior liquidity and minimal trading costs. While similar funds like ITOT and SCHB also offer broad market access, VTI's long history and established reputation with Vanguard provide an added layer of investor confidence. For investors seeking a single, comprehensive solution for their U.S. equity allocation, VTI often represents the gold standard due to its balanced portfolio and ultra-low fees, outperforming many peers over various long-term periods.
基金費用率管理資產（十億）1年回報3年回報5年回報收益率
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares (VTI) ⭐3.00%US$570.9B17.10%22.25%13.06%1.11%
iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market ETF (ITOT)3.00%US$80.1B17.00%22.25%13.08%1.06%
Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF (SCHB)3.00%US$40.1B16.94%22.28%13.13%1.11%
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO)3.00%US$460.6B17.85%22.97%14.39%1.05%

🎯 意義與重要性

The detailed valuation and peer comparison highlight VTI's position as a low-cost, broadly diversified U.S. equity core holding. While its performance closely mirrors the overall market, its minimal expense ratio is a significant competitive advantage over the long term. Investors choosing VTI are essentially betting on the enduring growth of the entire U.S. economy, accepting broad market risks for comprehensive exposure.

📊 附錄

前10大持倉（佔ETF價值80+）

#代碼標誌名稱板塊權重
1AAPL
A
Apple Inc.Technology6.3%
2NVDA
N
NVIDIA CorporationTechnology6.2%
3MSFT
M
Microsoft CorporationTechnology5.6%
4AMZN
A
Amazon.com Inc.Consumer Cyclical3.4%
5AVGO
B
Broadcom Inc.Technology2.9%
6GOOGL
A
Alphabet Inc. Class ACommunication Services2.8%
7GOOG
A
Alphabet Inc. Class CCommunication Services2.3%
8META
M
Meta Platforms Inc.Communication Services2.1%
9TSLA
T
Tesla Inc.Consumer Cyclical1.8%
10BRK.B
B
Berkshire Hathaway Inc.Financials1.4%

基金運作機制

運作方式

Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF (VTI) employs a passive indexing investment approach, meticulously designed to track the performance of the CRSP US Total Market Index. This index is a comprehensive benchmark that represents approximately 100% of the investable U.S. stock market, encompassing a wide spectrum of market capitalizations, including large-, mid-, small-, and micro-cap stocks traded on major U.S. exchanges. The fund utilizes a 'sampling' strategy, meaning it invests in a broadly diversified selection of securities that, in aggregate, closely approximates the full index in terms of key characteristics such as industry weightings, market capitalization, and financial measures like price-to-earnings ratios and dividend yields. The index is reviewed and rebalanced quarterly to maintain its representative exposure to the total U.S. equity universe. This methodology aims to deliver market-like returns with minimal tracking error, as the fund remains fully invested to capture broad market movements.

持倉細分

持倉數量
3512
前10大集中度
3450.0%
周轉率
210%
類別權重說明
Technology33.2%
Financial Services13.3%
Consumer Cyclical10.5%
Healthcare10.3%
Communication Services10.1%
Industrials8.8%
Consumer Defensive4.5%
Energy2.9%
Real Estate2.3%
Utilities2.2%
Basic Materials1.9%

成本效益

費用率
3.00%
買賣價差中位數
0.000%
費用率歷史
年份費用率
20253.00%
20243.00%

績效歷史

年份ETF回報基準回報追蹤差異波動性最大回撤夏普比率
202517.10%17.15%-0.05%N/AN/AN/A
202423.71%23.77%-0.06%N/AN/AN/A
202326.11%25.98%0.13%N/AN/AN/A
2022-19.51%-19.49%-0.02%N/A-19.51%N/A
202125.64%25.72%-0.08%N/AN/AN/A
成立以來年化回報
9.21%

詳細同業比較

代碼名稱發行商費用率管理資產（十億）1年3年5年收益率標準差（3年）夏普比率（3年）價差
VTI ⭐Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF SharesVanguard3.00%US$570.9B17.1%22.3%13.1%1.11%12.56%1.2915.000%
ITOTiShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market ETFBlackRock3.00%US$80.1B17.0%22.3%13.1%1.06%12.61%N/AN/A
SCHBSchwab U.S. Broad Market ETFCharles Schwab3.00%US$40.1B16.9%22.3%13.1%1.11%N/AN/AN/A
VOOVanguard S&P 500 ETFVanguard3.00%US$460.6B17.9%23.0%14.4%1.05%N/AN/AN/A
Category Average3.00%—17.2%22.4%13.4%1.08%—1.29—

風險指標

貝塔係數
1.00
阿爾法係數
-1.32
R平方
98.94

標準差

1年3年5年10年
N/A12.56%N/AN/A

夏普比率

1年3年5年10年
N/A1.29N/AN/A

索提諾比率

3年5年
N/AN/A

最大回撤

1年3年5年成立以來
N/A-19.51%N/AN/A

相關性

標普500
1.00

流動性與交易

成交量

平均每日股數
4,702,591
趨勢
stable

買賣價差

指標數值
中位數（百分比）15.000%
中位數（金額）US$0.51
交易時段不適用
收市時不適用
波動性low

溢價/折價相對淨值

指標數值
當前1.00%
30天平均不適用
1年平均不適用
標準差不適用
最高溢價（1年）不適用
最高折價（1年）不適用

申購/贖回活動

趨勢
stable
資金流動
期間淨流動

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